口子窖（603589）：2025Q2收入及利润下滑，需求压力下公司主动放缓经营节奏

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [6][4][19] Core Views - In Q2 2025, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit, reflecting demand pressure, with total revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, down 20.1% year-on-year, and net profit of 715 million yuan, down 24.6% year-on-year [1][4] - The product structure faced pressure, particularly in high-end liquor, which saw a revenue drop of 49.6% year-on-year in Q2 2025, while low-end liquor showed a slight increase of 7.5% [2][4] - The company is actively supporting its distribution channels to alleviate pressure, with a net increase of 25 distributors in both provincial and non-provincial markets by the end of Q2 2025 [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 715 million yuan, down 24.6% year-on-year [1] - Q2 2025 saw total revenue of 721 million yuan, a decline of 48.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 105 million yuan, down 70.9% year-on-year [1][4] Product and Market Analysis - High-end liquor revenue in Q2 2025 was 657 million yuan, down 49.6% year-on-year, while low-end liquor revenue was 29 million yuan, up 7.5% [2] - The provincial market in Anhui saw a revenue decline of 54.0% year-on-year, while non-provincial revenue decreased by 18.6% [2] Cost and Profitability - The overall gross margin in Q2 2025 decreased by 9.86 percentage points year-on-year, with tax and management expense ratios increasing due to fixed costs amid declining revenue [3] - The company reduced promotional activities, leading to a sales expense ratio decrease of 0.59 percentage points year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025, anticipating a gradual recovery in provincial market demand in the second half of the year [4][11] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 4.914 billion yuan, 5.077 billion yuan, and 5.378 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.266 billion yuan, 1.315 billion yuan, and 1.409 billion yuan [4][11]