神火股份（000933）：业绩符合预期，Q2电解铝盈利显著改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 met expectations, with a significant improvement in Q2 profitability for electrolytic aluminum [5][14] - The company achieved a revenue of 20.43 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.12%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.904 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.62% [13] - In Q2 2025, the company reported a net profit of 1.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.22% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 68.89% [13] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company sold 871,400 tons of aluminum products, a year-on-year increase of 16.26%, primarily due to increased sales from Yunnan Shenhuo electrolytic aluminum [5][14] - The sales gross margin for Q2 2025 was 24.41%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.10 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.48 percentage points [5][15] - The company’s coal sales volume in H1 2025 was 3.7275 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.31% [5][16] Price Trends - The price of alumina has significantly decreased, leading to improved profitability for electrolytic aluminum [5][15] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in H1 2025 was 20,300 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, while the average price of alumina was 3,460 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [5][15] Profitability Outlook - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 5.257 billion, 6.708 billion, and 7.214 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.06%, 27.61%, and 7.54% [17] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 8.2 for 2025, 6.5 for 2026, and 6.0 for 2027 [17][18]