口子窖（603589）：需求承压，加速出清

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [6][23]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 2.53 billion yuan, down 20.1% year-on-year, and net profit at 720 million yuan, down 24.6% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw an even sharper decline, with revenue dropping 48.5% to 720 million yuan and net profit falling 70.9% to 100 million yuan [1]. - The company is facing increased competition in the domestic market, leading to a focus on channel reform and resource integration to stimulate growth [6]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 6.015 billion yuan, with a significant drop to 4.353 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 27.6% [2]. - The net profit is expected to decline from 1.655 billion yuan in 2024 to 918 million yuan in 2025, a decrease of 44.5% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to decrease from 2.77 yuan in 2024 to 1.54 yuan in 2025 [2]. Operational Insights - The company is adjusting its operational strategies in response to market pressures, including slowing down shipment rates to alleviate financial strain on distributors [6]. - The number of distributors increased by 63 in the first half of 2025, indicating a strategic effort to strengthen market presence despite challenging conditions [6]. - The company is focusing on channel health and market penetration, particularly in key regions such as the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta [6]. Market Positioning - The company aims to enhance its market position by integrating resources and promoting channel reforms, with expectations of renewed growth momentum following the completion of these adjustments [6]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 40 yuan, with the current price at 35.40 yuan, suggesting potential upside [2].