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网易云音乐(09899):25H1中报点评:原创音乐人计划有望驱动差异化独占内容增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase Cloud Music (9899.HK) with a target price of 293.51 HKD [5][3] Core Views - The introduction of well-known Korean music labels and the promotion of original music are expected to drive growth in online music MAU (Monthly Active Users) [3][8] - The company reported a 25H1 revenue of 3.83 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, which was slightly below Bloomberg's expectations [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 25H1 was 1.89 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 133%, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 57% [8] Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 2.81 billion, 2.17 billion, and 2.54 billion CNY respectively [3] - The revenue for 2025 is expected to be 7.93 billion CNY, with a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, followed by a growth of 9.7% in 2026 [10] - The report anticipates that the online music revenue for 25H2 may reach 3.2 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15% [8] - The company is focusing on its core music business while adjusting its social entertainment segment, which saw a significant decline in revenue [8] Key Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin for 25H1 was 36%, which was 2 percentage points higher than Bloomberg's expectations [8] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 12.91 CNY, with a net profit margin of 35.4% [10] - The price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 is estimated at 19.7 times, while the price-to-book ratio is projected at 4.3 times [10]