云天化（600096）：国内磷肥保供稳价，国际磷肥价差扩大

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.99 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.76 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year [6][12] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 33.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.47 billion yuan, an increase of 6.5% year-on-year and 14.2% quarter-on-quarter [6][12] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.0 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) [6][12] Financial Performance - The company has a phosphate rock reserve of nearly 800 million tons and an annual production capacity of 14.5 million tons of raw ore [12] - The company’s gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was 21.3%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 13.7%, up 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [12] - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.46 billion yuan, 5.53 billion yuan, and 5.64 billion yuan, respectively [12] Market Dynamics - The company experienced a decline in sales volume for major products in Q2 2025, with phosphate fertilizer down 21.4%, compound fertilizer down 18.4%, and urea down 11.8% [12] - The price of phosphate fertilizer decreased by 7.3% year-on-year, while the price of compound fertilizer increased by 21.6% [12] - The price difference for exported phosphate fertilizers has significantly increased due to reduced international trade volume and rising sulfur prices, with the price difference for diammonium phosphate at ports increasing by 988 yuan/ton year-on-year [12] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively optimizing its internal management and advancing projects such as the Zhenxiong phosphate mine to enhance future growth [12] - The company is focused on maintaining a balance between development and returns, with a strong emphasis on internal reforms and capacity expansion [12]