南华贵金属日报：聚焦全球央行年会，贵金属止跌回升-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Technically, the short - term sentiment has improved. For London gold, the daily line shows a pattern where the bullish candle engulfs the bearish one, indicating that the bulls are in the dominant position again. For London silver, it rebounded after stopping the decline around $37. The operation strategy still maintains the idea of buying on dips [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market stopped falling and rebounded. The US dollar index fluctuated, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond declined, European and American stocks fluctuated and adjusted, crude oil prices rose, Bitcoin stopped falling, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals Index was weakly operating. The market is focusing on the guidance of the global central bank annual meeting on the future interest - rate cut prospects of the Federal Reserve. COMEX Gold 2512 contract closed at $3,392.2 per ounce, up 1%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.895 per ounce, up 1.51%. SHFE Gold 2510 main contract was at 772.68 yuan per gram, down 0.35%; SHFE Silver 2510 contract was at 9,042 yuan per kilogram, down 1.86%. The Fed's monetary policy meeting minutes released early Thursday highlighted internal differences within the Fed, with a hawkish tendency [2]. 3.2 Interest - rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations remained stable. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 81.9%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4 tons to 958.2 tons; the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 33.9 tons to 15,305.76 tons. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.2 tons to 1,140.2 tons; as of the week ending August 15, SGX silver inventory decreased by 17.7 tons to 1,286.8 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week's data is light. Moderate attention should be paid to the US weekly initial jobless claims, US S&P manufacturing and services PMI on Thursday night. In terms of events, the focus is on the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. At 22:00 on Friday, Fed Chairman Powell will give a speech at the meeting [4]. 3.4 Price, Inventory, and Other Data - Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices: SHFE Gold main - continuous contract was at 772.68 yuan per gram, down 0.31%; SGX Gold TD was at 769.83 yuan per gram, down 0.33%; CME Gold main contract was at $3,392.2 per ounce, up 0.99%. SHFE Silver main - continuous contract was at 9,042 yuan per kilogram, down 1.58%; SGX Silver TD was at 9,022 yuan per kilogram, down 1.75%; CME Silver main contract was at $37.895 per ounce, up 1.51% [6][7]. - Inventory and Holdings: SHFE gold inventory was 36,582 kilograms, up 0.69%; CME gold inventory was 1,199.4695 tons, down 0.17%; SHFE gold holdings were 191,474 lots, up 0.02%; SPDR gold holdings were 958.21 tons, down 0.42%. SHFE silver inventory was 1,140.199 tons, down 0.8%; CME silver inventory was 15,816.1046 tons, up 0.07%; SGX silver inventory was 1,286.835 tons, down 1.35%; SHFE silver holdings were 318,678 lots, down 6.96%; SLV silver holdings were 15,305.763094 tons, down 0.22% [18]. - Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Summary: The US dollar index was at 98.2236, down 0.04%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was at 7.1809, down 0.08%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 44,938.31 points, up 0.04%; WTI crude oil spot was at $62.71 per barrel, up 0.58%; LmeS copper 03 was at $9,721 per ton, up 0.38%; the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was at 4.29%, down 0.23%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was at 1.94%, down 0.51%; the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury bond yield spread was at 0.55%, unchanged [21].