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九华旅游(603199):2025年中报业绩点评:客流高增驱动业绩提速,交通改善+新项目释放中长期弹性

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 248 million yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.65%, and a net profit of 73 million yuan, up 17.4% year-on-year [7] - Strong growth in visitor numbers, with approximately 5.65 million visitors to Jiuhua Mountain in the first half of 2025, an increase of 11.81% year-on-year, driving revenue growth across all business lines [7] - Improvements in transportation and new projects are expected to release long-term flexibility, with increased flight frequencies at Jiuhua Mountain Airport and the gradual addition of high-speed rail lines in Chizhou [7] - The company is backed by the unique resources of Jiuhua Mountain, which has a rigid demand, and the ongoing state-owned enterprise reforms are expected to enhance operational efficiency [7] - The company maintains its profit forecast, with expected net profits of 217 million, 243 million, and 267 million yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 19, 17, and 15 times [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 723.64 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 117.94% [1] - The forecasted net profit for 2023A is 174.66 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1,374.94% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025E is projected to be 1.96 yuan per share [1] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 1,990 million yuan by 2025E [8] - The operating profit is forecasted to be 288 million yuan in 2025E, with a net profit margin of 25.56% [8]