[Table_Industry] 社会服务业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 股 票 研 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.07 政策推动、供求双旺，景区板块迎黄金投资期 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Report] 相关报告 社会服务业《政策支持服务消费发展，关注春节 数据》2026.02.01 社会服务业《金价持续上涨，春运出行高景气》 2026.01.25 社会服务业《新设口岸进境免税店，扩大免税市 场规模》2026.01.22 社会服务业《CPI 有所回升，CES 智能眼镜热度 延续》2026.01.11 社会服务业《消费政策利好，文旅行业迎来消费 回暖》2026.01.08 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 旅游行业深度报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 许樱之(分析师) | 0755-82900465 | xuyingzhi@ ...

证券之星消息，2月4日旅游及景区板块较上一交易日上涨0.71%，凯撒旅业领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4102.2，上涨0.85%。深证成指报收于14156.27，上涨0.21%。旅游及景区板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000796 | 凯撒旅业 | 6.47 | 3.69% | 106.63万 | | 6.83亿 | | 000610 | 西安旅游 | 10.53 | 3.54% | 49.51万 | | 5.06亿 | | 600054 | 黄山旅游 | 13.55 | 2.19% | 21.72万 | | 2.94亿 | | 600706 | 曲江文旅 | 10.82 | 2.08% | 7.31万 | | 7851.94万 | | 000888 | 峨眉山Ａ | 13.98 | 1.97% | 18.82万 | | 2.62亿 | | 002159 | 三特索道 | 16.36 | 1.93% | 4.53万 | | 7402.42万 ...

证券之星消息，2月3日旅游及景区板块较上一交易日上涨0.47%，陕西旅游领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4067.74，上涨1.29%。深证成指报收于14127.1，上涨2.19%。旅游及景区板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603199 九华旅游 | | -1606.61万 | 9.04% | 267.93万 | 1.51% | -1874.54万 | -10.54% | | 000558 天府文旅 | | 1180.32万 | 3.20% | -1005.53万 | -2.73% | -174.80万 | -0.47% | | 002627 | 三峡旅游 | 506.45万 | 2.23% | 626.38万 | 2.75% | -1132.83万 | -4.98% | | 603136 | 天目湖 | 478.32万 | 7.03% | 445.52万 | 6.55% | -923 ...

事件：超长假期叠加文旅补贴，春节出游预期乐观，重视出行标的配置 #超长假期来临：根据同程旅行春节旅游趋势报告，2026年春节为2月15日到2月23日，为期9天，是"史上最长春节 假期"，此外还可采取请5休15策略（2.15-3.1)，春节超长假期有望提振新春文旅市场活跃度。 史上最长春节假期，重视节前出行板块行情开启 事件：超长假期叠加文旅补贴，春节出游预期乐观，重视出行标的配置 #超长假期来临：根据同程旅行春节旅游趋势报告，2026年春节为2月15日到2月23日，为期9天，是"史上最长春节 假期"，此外还可采取请5休15策略（2.15-3.1)，春节超长假期有望提振新春文旅市场活跃度。 #消费补贴发挥杠杆效应：1月29日，文旅部宣布正式启动春节消费月，活动持续至 史上最长春节假期，重视节前出行板块行情开启 黄山旅游：公司控股股东旗下的东黄山索道建成在即，预计26年7月开通，有望将黄山最大承载量提升50%，带动 景区二消增长，索道后续大概率也注入上市公司体内解决同业竞争。 此外，公司北海酒店于25年9月重新开业，补足公司高端酒店供给。 天府文旅：卡位西南冰雪文旅体赛道，冬奥会催化在即。 公司旗下坐拥西岭雪山景 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 商贸零售 商社板块 2025 年四季度前瞻 1. 零售板块四季度前瞻： （1）黄金珠宝：①老凤祥：我们预计 25Q4 归母净利增速-15%至 5%。 ②周大生：我们预计 25Q4 归母净利增速 15%至 30%。③潮宏基：公司 预告 2025 年归母净利润 4.36 亿-5.33 亿元同比增 125%-175%，测算 25Q4 归母净利润 1.2-2.2 亿元；2025 年底潮宏基珠宝门店总数 1668 家， 年内净增 163 家。④菜百股份：公司预告 2025 年归母净利润 10.6 亿-12.3 亿，对应 25Q4 归母净利增速 150%-254%。⑤豫园股份：公司预告 25Q4 归母亏损 43.12 亿元，24 年同期亏损 10.3 亿元，主因公司持续瘦身健体， 对部分存在减值迹象的房地产项目及商誉等计提资产减值准备。 （2）潮玩：名创优品：我们预计 25Q4 收入增速 25%-30%，经调整 OP 同比双位数增长，经调整归母净利增速 10%至 20%。 （3）商超百货：①重庆百货：公司预告 2025 年归母净利 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The civil aviation sector is expected to see record-high passenger transport volumes during the Spring Festival [2]. - The report highlights optimism for travel-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to the upcoming holiday and improved vacation policies [4]. - The report suggests selecting short-term outperformers in the gold sector as the recent surge in gold prices may be ending [4]. - AI applications and undervalued new consumption sectors are also recommended for investment [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report notes a significant increase in domestic flight ticket bookings, with over 7.16 million tickets reserved as of January 29, 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 16% [4]. - International flight bookings also show slight growth, with over 1.72 million tickets reserved [4]. Retail Sector Insights - The report cites a Bain & Company report indicating a 3% to 5% contraction in China's personal luxury goods market in 2025, although this represents a significant improvement compared to the previous year's decline [4]. Company Announcements - Cai Bai Co. expects a net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.43% to 71.07% [4]. - Lai Shen Tong Ling anticipates a turnaround with a projected net profit of 58 million RMB for 2025, compared to a loss of 184 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Yu Garden Co. expects a net loss of approximately 4.8 billion RMB for 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 125 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Cuihua Jewelry forecasts a net profit of 21 million to 31 million RMB for 2025, a decrease of 85.69% to 90.31% compared to the previous year [4]. Key Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks across various sectors, including: - Hotels: Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, JinJiang Hotels [4]. - Duty-free: China Duty Free Group [4]. - Scenic spots: Emei Mountain A, Jiuhua Tourism, Huangshan Tourism [4]. - Gold sector: Cai Bai Co., Luk Fook Holdings, Lao Pu Gold [4]. - AI and new consumption: Kangnait Optical, Huatu Shanding, Tianli International Holdings [4].

本报告导读： 民航春运旅客运输量有望新高。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 政策支持服务消费发展，关注春节数据 [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 商社行业周报（2026.1.26-2026.2.1） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 蔡昕妤(分析师) | 021-23183557 | caixinyu@gtht.com | S0880525110001 | 社会服务业《金价持续上涨，春运出行高景气》 2026.01.25 社会服务业《新设口岸进境免税店，扩大免税市 场规模》2026.01.22 社会服务业《CPI 有所回升，CES 智能眼镜热度 延续》2026.01.11 社会服务业《消费政策利好，文旅行业迎来消费 回暖》2026.01.08 社会服务业《2026 旅游市场强劲开局，行业前景 可期》2026.01.04 股 票 研 究 究 报 告 请 ...

证券之星消息，1月23日旅游及景区板块较上一交易日上涨0.42%，三峡旅游领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4136.16，上涨0.33%。深证成指报收于14439.66，上涨0.79%。旅游及景区板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002627 | 三峡旅游 | 9.70 | 3.63% | 34.95万 | 3.41亿 | | 002707 | 众信旅游 | 8.38 | 2.07% | 56.17万 | 4.69亿 | | 600749 | 四藏旅游 | 17.63 | 1.97% | 7.00万 | 1.22亿 | | 661809 | 九华旅游 | 43.60 | 1.89% | 5.92万 | 2.58亿 | | 300859 | 西域旅游 | 39.12 | 1.77% | 6.18万 | 2.40亿 | | 600593 | 大连圣亚 | 46.77 | 1.08% | 7.67万 | 3.54亿 | | 600576 | 祥源文旅 | 6.78 | 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tourism and scenic spots sector experienced a decline of 1.11% on January 21, with Jiuhua Tourism leading the drop [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4116.94, up 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14255.12, up 0.7% [1] - Major stocks in the tourism sector showed mixed performance, with notable gainers including Sanxia Tourism (up 2.29%) and Tianfu Cultural Tourism (up 2.10%) [1] - Jiuhua Tourism saw the largest decline at 3.91%, closing at 42.79 [2] Group 2: Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The tourism and scenic spots sector had a net capital outflow of 287 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 282 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for Sanxia Tourism was 242,100 shares, with a transaction value of 215 million yuan [1] - Tianfu Cultural Tourism had a trading volume of 604,300 shares, with a transaction value of 322 million yuan [1] Group 3: Individual Stock Capital Flow - Tianfu Cultural Tourism had a net inflow of 24.17 million yuan from major investors, but a net outflow of 9.19 million yuan from speculative investors [3] - Xian Tourism experienced a significant net outflow of 6.34 million yuan from major investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 10.35 million yuan [3] - Yunnan Tourism faced a net outflow of 5.99 million yuan from major investors, with a net inflow of 5.70 million yuan from retail investors [3]