Micron Technology(US:MU) Great Wall Securities·2025-08-21 12:22Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The HBM market is projected to reach $46 billion by 2026, accounting for 35% of the DRAM market, with a CAGR of 33% from 2024 to 2030 [3][25] - AI-driven demand is significantly increasing, with the average storage capacity per AI server expected to double or quadruple, leading to exponential growth in total storage demand [3][12] - Major semiconductor manufacturers are ramping up HBM production, with capital expenditures for 2025 expected to exceed initial plans [3][12] Demand Side Summary - AI server shipments are forecasted to grow by 17.2% year-on-year, reaching 2.51 million units by 2026, driven by increased capital expenditures from major cloud service providers [6][25] - The average HBM capacity per AI server is expected to increase by 8 to 16 times due to higher configurations and the transition to next-generation HBM technologies [6][12] - The total HBM demand is projected to reach 34.05 billion GB by 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 67% [25] Supply Side Summary - Major manufacturers like Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung are actively expanding HBM production capacity, with significant increases in capital expenditures planned for 2025 [3][12] - The supply of HBM is currently adequate, but the high growth in demand and the transition to higher-end HBM generations are expected to drive prices upward [11][12] - The competitive landscape is dominated by a few key players, with the market share of SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron expected to shift from 5:3:2 to 5:2:3 by 2026 [12] Price Outlook - The average selling price (ASP) of HBM is expected to rise to $1.84 per Gb by 2026, driven by the demand for high-end products [12][25] - The HBM market is currently in an upward price cycle, influenced by the recovery in terminal demand due to AI applications [3][12] Industry Overview - The semiconductor storage market is characterized by oligopolistic competition, with the top three manufacturers holding over 95% market share in DRAM and HBM [3][12] - The overall semiconductor storage market is projected to reach $165.5 billion in 2024, representing over 25% of the semiconductor market [3][12]