Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 34.70, reflecting a potential upside of 22.9% and a target P/E ratio of 8.5 times for FY25 [4][6][20]. Core Views - The mid-year performance for FY25 was slightly disappointing, with a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit of 14.8% and 61.2%, respectively, due to lower average coal prices and temporary weather-related logistics issues [1][2]. - However, the outlook for the second half of FY25 is expected to improve, driven by seasonal energy demand and policy changes in China, leading to a forecasted rebound in coal prices [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of FY25, Yancoal reported revenue of AUD 268 million and a net profit of AUD 16 million, down from the previous year [1]. - The average coal price fell by 15.3% to AUD 149 per ton, with thermal and metallurgical coal prices decreasing by 11.5% and 35.1%, respectively [1]. - Despite an 11.1% increase in coal production to 18.9 million tons, sales volume dropped by 1.8% to 16.6 million tons due to logistical challenges [1]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a narrowing of the year-on-year decline in coal prices for FY25, with expected average prices of AUD 149 for thermal coal and AUD 219 for metallurgical coal [2]. - The forecast for total coal sales volume for FY25 is projected to increase by 1.3% to 38.2 million tons, with a sales-to-production ratio of 97.2% [2]. Operational Guidance - Yancoal maintains its operational guidance for FY25, targeting coal production between 35 million to 39 million tons, cash operating costs of AUD 89-97 per ton, and capital expenditures of AUD 750-900 million [3]. Adjusted Profit Forecasts - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for FY25-27 downwards by 9.3%, 8.0%, and 11.0%, respectively, reflecting the updated expectations based on mid-year performance [4][5].
兖煤澳大利亚（03668）：中期业绩略为逊色，但下半年有望改善