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卓越教育集团(03978):合同负债同比高增,高分红持续

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue of 917 million and net profit of 152 million, representing year-on-year increases of 188.9% and 178.5% respectively [2] - The company's contract liabilities reached 587 million, a year-on-year increase of 28%, providing a solid foundation for future performance [2] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.118 HKD for the 2024 fiscal year, which accounts for approximately 54% of its annual profit, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.1% [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 45.1% and a net profit margin of 16.5%, with gross margin slightly increasing by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points [4] - The adjusted net profit, excluding fair value changes and other income, was 184 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 240.7% [2] Business Segments - The company’s full-time review, quality education, and tutoring projects generated revenues of 101 million, 723 million, and 89 million respectively, with quality education experiencing a remarkable growth of 513.1% year-on-year [3] - The company has expanded its workforce to 3,592 employees, a 101% increase compared to the previous year, which supports future business development [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively implementing an "ALL IN AI" strategy to enhance operational efficiency through AI technology across various functions, including teaching and marketing [3] - The company has launched new courses tailored to local cultural characteristics in Shenzhen and Foshan, further driving its market expansion [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.985 billion, 2.501 billion, and 3.121 billion respectively, with net profit forecasts of 331 million, 423 million, and 532 million [5] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.39, 0.50, and 0.63 HKD, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13, 10, and 8 times [5]