机构：国元国际 研究员：冯浩 【投资要点】 给予买入评级，目标价6.89 港元 公司为华南地区教培龙头，成立于1997 年，2018 年在香港联交所主板上市。 公司注重股东回报，逐年提升分红率，2025/2026 年计划派息比例分别为60%/70%，股息分末期和中期 两次派付，股息率在同业中具吸引力，反映公司良好的现金流能力，提升投资者信心。 公司一直秉承"一切为了孩子健康生长"的初心，致力于为家庭用户提供孩子的综合成长服务与解决方 案。2017 年，卓越教育提出了"向未来生长"的品牌战略。2022 年，公司开始积极转型素质教育， 2023/2024 年扣非归母净利润同比+108.99%/74.21%，业绩大幅增长。2024 年，公司坚定推进"All inAI"战略，赋能教学体系。 公司凭借在教育行业27 年的从业经验，积累了良好的声誉，近期广州暑期续课率接近80%。公司的"强 语文"优势早已深入人心，在 "双减"后，充分发挥其"双减"前"强语文"优势，推动素质教育产品的创新 和升级。 此外，顺应国家重视人工智能教育的趋势，公司推出人工智能编程课程，团队已连续在世界机器人大赛 等多个比赛中获得奖项。受益大湾区 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Guoyuan International has given a "buy" rating to Excellence Education Group, with a target price of HKD 6.89, highlighting its leadership in the South China education and training sector [1] - The company has actively transformed into quality education in 2022, resulting in significant growth in performance [1] - The demand in the industry is rigid, and the K12 education and training market in Guangdong has vast potential [1] Group 2 - Revenue projections for the company are estimated to reach 1.995 billion, 2.381 billion, and 2.811 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 325 million, 382 million, and 446 million yuan for the same years [1] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio and is currently undervalued [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 6.89, indicating a potential upside of 26.9% from the current price of HKD 5.43 [7]. Core Insights - The company, 卓越教育集团 (Excellence Education Group), is a leading player in the K12 education sector in South China, focusing on comprehensive growth services for children. The company has successfully transitioned to quality education, with a significant increase in net profit expected in the coming years [4][6]. - The K12 education market in Guangdong is projected to grow, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% to 7% from 2025 to 2030, driven by strong demand for quality non-subject education [5]. - The company has a strong brand reputation and teaching capabilities, with a high retention rate of nearly 80% for summer courses in Guangzhou. The introduction of AI-driven courses aligns with national trends, further enhancing its market position [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1997 and listed in 2018, the company has shifted its focus from traditional subject education to quality education, particularly after the "double reduction" policy in 2021. The revenue from quality education is expected to account for 64.74% of total revenue by 2024 [16][21]. Industry Analysis - The "double reduction" policy has led to a significant reduction in the number of K9 subject training institutions, with a decrease of 96% in offline institutions. This has created opportunities for quality education providers [43][44]. - The demand for quality education remains strong, with increasing enrollment rates in high schools and a growing emphasis on comprehensive student development [48]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 19.95 billion, HKD 23.81 billion, and HKD 28.11 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of HKD 3.25 billion, HKD 3.82 billion, and HKD 4.46 billion, reflecting robust growth rates [7][8].

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the education sector and the training industry, highlighting recent trends and developments in these areas [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The company has been actively engaging with stakeholders regarding the dynamics within the education and training sectors, indicating a focus on understanding market shifts and consumer behavior [1] Other Important Content - No additional significant details or numerical data were provided in the excerpt [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the education sector [2] Core Insights - The education industry has two core functions: academic advancement and employment, leading to various sub-sectors. K12 education is characterized as a long-term growth sector with strong underlying demand and a long user lifecycle [3] - The K12 education market has previously reached valuations exceeding 1 trillion RMB, with leading companies like TAL Education, New Oriental, and Gaotu achieving peak market caps of 349.3 billion, 235 billion, and 217.8 billion RMB respectively [3] - The report highlights that the education sector is currently in a recovery phase post "Double Reduction" policy and pandemic, with structural investment opportunities still present [3] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - Favorable policies such as birth subsidies are expected to improve education consumption expectations, while K12 education is undergoing normalized regulation [6] - The population trend indicates a decline in the number of elementary school students starting in 2024 due to decreasing birth rates, although the demand for high school education remains strong [11][13] - There is a persistent strong desire for higher education, with the expansion of ordinary undergraduate degrees continuing [17][18] Market Performance - From January 1 to June 12, 2025, the education sector index rose by 5.04%, outperforming the broader market by 5.50 percentage points [24] - The report notes significant stock performance differentiation within the sector, with companies like China Oriental Education leading in vocational training due to a reassessment of blue-collar skill training value [30] Sub-sector Analysis - K12 Education: The report emphasizes the ongoing demand for K12 education despite regulatory challenges, with a focus on high-quality educational institutions benefiting from favorable demographic trends [30] - Vocational Education: The demand for vocational skills training is expected to grow, particularly as the labor market evolves [30] - AI in Education: The report highlights the rapid development and integration of AI in educational products, with traditional education companies accelerating their AI product offerings [22][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by more than 10% [3][46]. Core Insights - The education sector has shown significant stock performance differentiation since early 2025, with notable gains in companies such as China Oriental Education (+139%) and Gaotu Group (+74%) [1][11]. - Demand within the education sector is highly variable, with high school education and K9 high-age training showing the strongest demand, while vocational schools and study abroad programs face pressure [1][11]. - The K12 education sector is entering a new phase of competition, emphasizing brand and teaching capabilities as key drivers for growth, with a slowdown in the rapid expansion of physical locations [2][28]. - The recovery pace varies among companies, with some like China Oriental Education and Gaotu Group showing strong performance due to strategic focus on K12 education [2][33]. Summary by Sections Demand Differentiation - Demand for educational services is closely tied to their effectiveness in enhancing employment and academic opportunities, with high school education being the most in-demand segment [1][11]. - The report highlights that nearly half of families allocate extra funds for children's education, indicating a robust market for educational services [11][27]. Competitive Landscape - The K12 education sector is witnessing a shift from rapid expansion to focusing on existing locations, with a notable decrease in the growth rate of K9 non-academic training institutions [2][28]. - The number of registered high school academic training institutions remains stable, suggesting a consolidation phase in the market [2][28]. Recovery Trends - Since the implementation of new regulations in May 2022, the K12 education sector has begun to recover, with companies like Zhuoyue Education focusing on compliant high school-related businesses [2][33]. - Companies such as Yuhua Education and Xijiao International Holdings are addressing financial restructuring, indicating a gradual recovery in market sentiment [2][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies like Tongcheng Travel, Ctrip Group, and Meituan, which are expected to benefit from favorable policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [3][46].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong education stocks have experienced a decline, with China Oriental Education (00667.HK) falling over 4% [1] - Other companies such as Xijiao International (01765.HK) and New Oriental (09901.HK) also saw declines of more than 3.5% and nearly 3% respectively [1] - The downward trend includes other firms like Excellence Education Group (03978.HK) [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has successfully transitioned to quality education, which is expected to support revenue growth. In 2024, it achieved a revenue of 1.1 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year increase of 125.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 190 million HKD, up 110.9% year-on-year [4][6]. - The company's contract liabilities at the end of 2024 were 600 million HKD, a year-on-year increase of 184.3%, which is anticipated to support revenue growth in 2025. The introduction of AI products is expected to enhance efficiency for both teachers and students [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company generated revenue of 1.1 billion HKD, with segments of quality education, full-time review, and tutoring contributing 710 million, 210 million, and 180 million HKD respectively, showing year-on-year growth rates of 411.7%, 1%, and 25.2% [6]. - The net profit for 2024 was 190 million HKD, with a lower growth rate compared to revenue due to adjustments in revenue structure leading to a decline in gross margin and an increase in sales and management expense ratios [6]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.02 billion, 2.28 billion, and 2.54 billion HKD for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 320 million, 380 million, and 420 million HKD [7][8]. - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9x, 8x, and 7x respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7][8]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leader in K12 education in South China, successfully expanding its market presence in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Foshan. The increasing demand for education in the Greater Bay Area is expected to enhance its competitive position [7].

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 卓越教育集团（03978） 证券研究报告 稳扎稳打持续突破 素质转型成果显现，AI 助力提质增效 公司收入 11.02 亿，同增 125.2%；净利 1.92 亿，同增 114%，核心业务表 现亮眼，素质转型成果显著，AI 技术赋能教育场景。 2024 年卓越在素质教育领域实现历史性突破，收入 7.1 亿，占总收入 64.7%， 同比增长 411.7%，成为收入增长核心动力。辅导项目收入稳步增长 25.2% 至 1.81 亿元；全日制复读业务收入微增 1%至 2.1 亿元，市占率提升。 全年毛利率 46.3%，银行存款余额 11.2 亿，同比增长 124%，合约负债 6 亿元，同比增长 184%。财务指标的强劲，说明家长素质教育消费的需求持 续增长，为公司未来发展提供坚实保障。 AI 技术全面赋能，教学效率提升 公司坚定推进"All in AI"战略，对迭代多年的"鲸准教系统"进行 AI 升级， 构建"千人千面"学习路径，精准预测学生薄弱环节，针对性提升成绩； 其中，作文智能批改系统已成功落地，并在初中阶段稳定应用，大幅提高 了教师的批改效率。 青椒 AI 助教已经上线，大幅提升老 ...