wanhua(SH:600309) Changjiang Securities·2025-08-21 15:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [13][15]. Core Viewpoints - The company has experienced a prolonged decline in stock price since February 2021, with earnings expected to fluctuate downwards from 2022 to 2024, and a projected 25.1% year-on-year decline in the first half of 2025. Currently, the company is at a low point in both performance and valuation. However, there are positive changes anticipated in the global and Chinese market environments, with the main products MDI/TDI expected to see an upturn in demand. The company has established a competitive moat in its petrochemical business, and a slowdown in capital expenditure may lead to sustained cash flow improvements. The company is focusing on a strategy of "focusing" and "operating" to solidify its advantages and promote a recovery [3][6][22]. Summary by Sections Market Environment Changes - The global and Chinese chemical industry leaders are facing a challenging period, but there are signs of positive changes in supply dynamics. Increased operational pressures have led foreign companies like Shell and Dow to exit certain capacities, resulting in a continuous optimization of supply [7][33]. MDI Market Outlook - MDI, primarily used in home appliances and real estate insulation, is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics. The demand for MDI in China is supported by the home appliance sector, and potential interest rate cuts in the US may boost real estate demand. The global MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with significant barriers to entry and a projected recovery in demand [8][51][59]. TDI Market Outlook - TDI, used in the production of foams and curing agents, is experiencing a supply shortage, leading to significant price increases. The domestic furniture industry's strong demand is expected to further drive TDI consumption [9][72]. Petrochemical Business - The company is enhancing its competitive edge through raw material advantages, with a successful launch of a new ethylene facility. The integration of the entire industrial chain is expected to significantly improve profitability in the petrochemical sector [10][12]. Fine Chemicals and New Materials - The company is focusing on its fine chemicals and new materials segment, which includes various high-value-added business units. The acceleration of self-developed technologies is expected to yield promising future growth [11][12]. Management and Cost Control - The company is implementing cost reduction and capital expenditure control measures, with a focus on improving operational efficiency. A planned investment of 25.24 billion yuan in 2025 indicates a significant reduction in overall investment scale, which may lead to improved cash flow and a decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio [12][46].