HONGLU(SZ:002541) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-08-22 00:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in operational performance in 25H1, with revenue of 10.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 33% due to a significant drop in non-recurring gains [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, which is anticipated to lead to a new round of supply-side reforms in the steel industry, helping to stabilize and potentially increase steel prices [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 25H1, the company reported a gross margin of 10.0%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in steel prices [2]. - The operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 200 million yuan in 25H1, which is an increase in outflow compared to the previous year, attributed to increased procurement of steel materials [2]. - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 640 million, 780 million, and 920 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -17%, +21%, and +18% [4]. Market Position and Outlook - The company’s market share is expected to continue to rise, supported by a slight increase in new signed orders and production growth despite a weak macro demand environment [1][3]. - The report highlights that if steel prices increase by 3%, 5%, or 10%, the company's net profit per ton could increase by 15, 25, or 50 yuan respectively, significantly impacting overall profitability [3].