BAOFENG ENERGY(SH:600989) Guoxin Securities·2025-08-22 01:39Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][25] Core Views - The company achieved a record high net profit attributable to shareholders in the second quarter of 2025, with revenue of 12.05 billion yuan (up 39.0% year-on-year, up 11.9% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of 3.28 billion yuan (up 74.2% year-on-year, up 34.6% quarter-on-quarter) [1][10] - The growth in profit is driven by accelerated capacity release from the Inner Mongolia olefin project, significant increases in polyethylene and polypropylene sales, and a decline in coal costs [1][10] - The company continues to expand its polyethylene and polypropylene production capacity, with ongoing projects in Ningdong and Xinjiang [2][17] Financial Performance - In the second quarter of 2025, the company produced and sold 640,500 and 638,300 tons of polyethylene (up 128% year-on-year) and 629,000 and 626,400 tons of polypropylene (up 109% year-on-year) [2][17] - The average selling prices for polyethylene and polypropylene were 6,495 yuan/ton and 6,346 yuan/ton, respectively, reflecting a decrease compared to the previous year [2][17] - The company’s gross margin was 38.0%, and net margin was 27.2% in the second quarter of 2025 [10] Cost Structure - The average procurement prices for key raw materials such as gasification coal, coking coal, and thermal coal were 447 yuan/ton, 763 yuan/ton, and 321 yuan/ton, respectively, showing significant year-on-year declines [3][24] - The cost advantage of coal-based olefins over oil-based and PDH routes is expected to further strengthen, with coal-based olefins costing approximately 6,082 yuan/ton compared to 7,415 yuan/ton for oil-based [3][24] Profit Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 12.206 billion yuan, 12.413 billion yuan, and 13.267 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.66 yuan, 1.69 yuan, and 1.81 yuan [4][25]