Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-22 02:33Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but since late April, they have been in a continuous oscillation, lacking further inflation or interest - rate cut trading impetus. For London gold, short - term resistance is at 3350, and if broken, it may test 3375 and then the 3400 area, with support at 3330 and strong support at 3300 - 3310. For London silver, it stopped falling and rebounded around 37, short - term resistance is at the 38.2 area, and if broken, it may retest 38.7, with support at 37. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On Thursday, the precious metals market saw gold oscillate and silver rise slightly. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields increased, exerting pressure. The US stock market oscillated and adjusted, crude oil rose, Bitcoin fell, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metal Index oscillated. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3383.5 per ounce, down 0.15%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $38.1 per ounce, up 0.87%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was 775.12 yuan per gram, up 0.3%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was 9162 yuan per kilogram, up 0.63% [2]. 3.2 Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations continued to cool. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 25%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 75%. For October, the probability of unchanged rates is 13.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 51.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 35.3%. For December, the probability of unchanged rates is 3.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 24.4%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 46.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 25%. In terms of long - term funds, SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 1.44 tons to 956.77 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 28.24 tons to 15277.52 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 25.1 tons to 1115.1 tons, and as of the week ending August 15, SGX silver inventory decreased by 17.7 tons to 1286.8 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week's data is scarce, and there is no important data release on Friday. The event focus is on the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. At 22:00 on Friday, Fed Chairman Powell will give a speech at the meeting [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - Precious Metals Price Table: SHFE gold main - continuous contract was 775.12 yuan per gram, up 0.32%; SGX gold TD was 771.66 yuan per gram, up 0.24%; CME gold main contract was $3383.5 per ounce, down 0.26%; SHFE silver main - continuous contract was 9162 yuan per kilogram, up 1.33%; SGX silver TD was 9144 yuan per kilogram, up 1.35%; CME silver main contract was $38.1 per ounce, up 0.54% [6]. - Inventory and Position Table: SHFE gold inventory was 36642 kilograms, up 0.16%; CME gold inventory was 1199.7791 tons, up 0.03%; SHFE gold position was 183215 lots, down 4.31%; SPDR gold position was 956.77 tons, down 0.15%; SHFE silver inventory was 1115.055 tons, down 2.21%; CME silver inventory was 15816.1046 tons, unchanged; SGX silver inventory was 1286.835 tons, down 1.35%; SHFE silver position was 307098 lots, down 3.63%; SLV silver position was 15277.5184 tons, down 0.18% [13][15]. 3.5 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 98.6409, up 0.42%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1853, up 0.06%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44785.5 points, down 0.34%; WTI crude oil spot was $63.52 per barrel, up 1.29%; LmeS copper 03 was $9734.5 per ton, up 0.14%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.33%, up 0.93%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was 1.94%, unchanged; the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread was 0.54%, down 1.82% [21].