化工日报：PTA大装置计划外停车，价格大幅上涨-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The unplanned shutdown of large - scale PTA plants has led to a significant increase in prices. The shutdown of two 2.5 - million - ton plants of Hengli will affect 5 million tons of PTA production capacity, accounting for 5.5% of the total PTA production capacity and 30% of Hengli's total PTA production capacity. This may cause a monthly loss of up to 400,000 tons, and the supply - demand situation in September will change from balance to significant de - stocking[1]. - In terms of cost, the meeting between the US and Russian presidents ended with a good negotiation atmosphere but no agreement. The geopolitical situation continues to impact crude oil prices, which are in a short - term range - bound pattern. The PX balance sheet has shifted from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, but the overall PX inventory remains low, and there is support below the PXN[2]. - The most pessimistic period for PTA demand has passed. With the increase in PTA maintenance, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the de - stocking amplitude from August to September has significantly increased. However, the supply of old goods is abundant due to the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts[2]. - The polyester operating rate is 89.4% (a month - on - month increase of 0.6%). The most pessimistic period of the off - season for demand has passed, and there are signs of improvement in local orders. The polyester load is expected to remain stable and continue to rise in the short term[3]. - For PF, the demand has improved slightly but is limited. The near - month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts. For PR, several major manufacturers have extended their maintenance plans, and the spot processing fee for bottle chips is expected to recover and then return to range - bound fluctuations[3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - glossy natural white basis[8][9][11]. II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX CFR China - Naphtha CFR Japan), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit[17][20]. III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit[25][27]. IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia[28][31][33]. V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents figures on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory[37][40][41]. VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It includes figures on filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rates, and filament profits[48][50][52]. VII. Detailed PF Data - Figures cover polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee[71][78][82]. VIII. Detailed PR Fundamental Data - It includes figures on polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips spread, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread[87][94][96].