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万华化学(600309):龙头经营稳健,周期拐点向上

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's main business remains stable, with a short-term impact from impairment and scrapping [5] - The company reported a revenue of 90.901 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.123 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year [5] - The company is expected to gradually emerge from the cyclical bottom due to improving product prices and demand in Q3 2025 [6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 47.834 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.1% [5] - The sales volume for polyurethane, petrochemical, and fine chemicals increased by 14.5%, 7.8%, and 35.4% year-on-year, respectively [6] - The gross margin and net margin for Q2 2025 were 12.2% and 7.0%, respectively, showing a decline compared to the previous year [6] Future Growth Potential - The company has ongoing projects that are expected to enhance its growth in the medium to long term, including a new 700,000-ton/year polyurethane expansion project expected to be operational by Q2 2026 [6] - The company is also involved in a joint venture to build a 1.6 million-ton/year specialty polyolefin project, which will significantly enhance its international presence [6] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a net profit of 13.876 billion yuan, 17.142 billion yuan, and 19.971 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.43, 5.48, and 6.38 yuan [8]