天润乳业（600419）：减值如期收敛，带动盈利改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Tianrun Dairy (600419), indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [8][24]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 1.395 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders improved to -22 million yuan from -28 million yuan in the same period last year. The non-recurring net profit reached 58 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 141.32% year-on-year [2][3]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 771 million yuan, down 3.94% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 51 million yuan, compared to -32 million yuan in the same quarter last year. The non-recurring net profit also improved to 59 million yuan from 1 million yuan year-on-year [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 2.791 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 0.5% compared to 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise to 630 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 44.5% year-on-year [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.20 yuan, with subsequent years showing an increase to 0.49 yuan in 2026 and 0.58 yuan in 2027 [4][14]. - The company’s gross margin for Q2 2025 was reported at 18.68%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved cost management and government subsidies [8][9]. Sales and Market Dynamics - The report highlights that despite external consumption pressures, the company has actively worked on sales strategies, leading to a notable revenue increase in domestic markets. The revenue from Xinjiang increased by 10.65% year-on-year, while revenue from outside Xinjiang decreased by 17.21% [8][9]. - The company is focusing on channel expansion and product innovation to counteract the competitive pressures and weak demand in the market [8][9]. Future Outlook - The report suggests a positive outlook for profit recovery in the short term, driven by reduced impairment losses and improved operational efficiency. The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and expansion into new markets in the medium to long term [8][9].