HYMD(SH:600971) Minsheng Securities·2025-08-22 07:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 was significantly impacted by a decline in both sales volume and price in the coal business, resulting in a revenue drop of 38.9% year-on-year to 2.377 billion yuan and a net profit loss of 129 million yuan compared to a profit of 758 million yuan in the same period of 2024 [1][2]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a further decline in performance, with revenue of 1.198 billion yuan, a 35.0% decrease quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit loss of 156 million yuan, reversing from profits in previous quarters [1][2]. - The company is expected to see a rebound in performance in the second half of 2025 due to a rebound in coking coal prices, supported by supply reduction policies [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 4.768 million tons of raw coal, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, and sold 3.377 million tons of commodity coal, down 13.0% year-on-year. The average selling price per ton of coal was 662.2 yuan, a decline of 30.6% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit from commodity coal sales in the first half of 2025 was 320 million yuan, down 79.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 14.3%, a decrease of 27.2 percentage points [2]. - The company's electricity business saw a net profit of 21.947 million yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 48.7% year-on-year, primarily due to the profitability of one of its power plants [4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the closure of inefficient power generation assets will improve the profitability of its electricity business. The shutdown will reduce coal-fired capacity by 66 MW, with no significant short-term impact on operations expected [4]. - The forecast for the company's net profit for 2025-2027 is 173 million yuan, 279 million yuan, and 433 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.14 yuan, 0.23 yuan, and 0.36 yuan [5][6].