XGIMI(SH:688696) East Money Securities·2025-08-22 07:40Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Views - The smart projection industry has emerged from a technical adjustment phase, with a recovery in market conditions driven by national subsidy policies. The industry is expected to continue its recovery in 2025 [4][8]. - The company has innovated its product structure, leading to a steady recovery in profitability. The introduction of the portable PLAY series priced below 2000 yuan has allowed the company to regain market share lost to LCD products [4][5]. - The company is actively expanding into new growth areas, including overseas markets, automotive applications, and commercial sectors, which are anticipated to drive future revenue growth [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. National Subsidy Supports Stabilization of Scale - The smart projection industry faced challenges in 2023-2024 due to supply-side cost reductions and demand-side downgrades, leading to a slight decline in scale. However, with the inclusion of smart projectors in national subsidies, the industry is expected to recover, achieving a sales volume of 6.04 million units in 2024, a 3% year-on-year increase [4][13]. - The DLP product sales are stabilizing, with a market share expected to remain between 30-40% during the promotional seasons [4][14]. 2. Company: Resilience of a Market Leader - The company has shown resilience in reversing its performance downturn, with a significant profit increase of 337% year-on-year in Q1 2025, following a strategic adjustment in product structure [4][43]. - The company has successfully captured market share in the low-end segment by launching the portable PLAY series, which has seen a notable increase in sales volume [4][48][50]. 3. New Growth Curves Open Up Future Growth Space - The overseas market for smart projectors reached a scale of 11.66 million units in 2023, with the company increasing its overseas revenue share to 32% in 2024, indicating strong growth potential [4][5]. - The company has entered the automotive sector, achieving a breakthrough with eight designated projects in 2024, and is also re-entering the commercial market with new laser projectors [4][5]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 39.2 billion yuan, 45.5 billion yuan, and 52.0 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 3.2 billion yuan, 4.2 billion yuan, and 5.3 billion yuan [5][6]. - The report anticipates a steady recovery in profitability, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to rise from 4.5 yuan in 2025 to 7.6 yuan in 2027, reflecting a favorable price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio [5][6].