Kouzijiao(SH:603589) Minsheng Securities·2025-08-22 08:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 34.65 yuan [5]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 2.531 billion yuan and a net profit of 715 million yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 20.07% and 24.63% respectively [1]. - The high-end liquor segment saw a substantial drop in revenue, contributing to a shift in product structure, with high-end liquor accounting for 94.13% of total revenue in Q2 2025, down from previous periods [1]. - The company is expected to recover in the medium to long term as market conditions improve, with projected net profits of 1.044 billion yuan, 1.193 billion yuan, and 1.420 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the gross margin was 73.07%, down 2.78 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin dropped to 14.51%, a decrease of 11.18 percentage points [2]. - The company’s sales and management expense ratios were 14.09% and 7.37% respectively for the first half of 2025, indicating a strategic adjustment in marketing expenses [2]. - Forecasts for revenue and net profit show a decline in 2025, with expected revenues of 4.691 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.044 billion yuan, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [4][10].