iQIYI(US:IQ) Orient Securities·2025-08-22 08:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The new broadcasting policy is expected to positively drive the industry's long-form content ROI recovery, with the company's GAAP net profit forecasted to be -348 million, 533 million, and 1.977 billion CNY for 2025 to 2027 respectively [3][9] - The target price is set at 2.37 USD per ADS, based on a 31X adjusted P/E ratio for 2026 [3] Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The company’s revenue is projected to decline from 31.873 billion CNY in 2023 to 27.387 billion CNY in 2025, with a slight recovery to 29.875 billion CNY by 2027 [5][12] - The operating profit is expected to drop significantly to 134 million CNY in 2025, before recovering to 1.629 billion CNY by 2027 [5][12] - The company's net profit is forecasted to show a significant turnaround, moving from -348 million CNY in 2025 to 1.977 billion CNY in 2027 [5][12] - The report anticipates a recovery in membership revenue, projecting 43 billion CNY for Q3 2025, driven by popular content [9] - Advertising revenue is expected to rebound in Q3 2025, with a forecast of 13 billion CNY, supported by strong performance from key variety shows [9]