CATL(SZ:300750) Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-22 08:35Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the lithium carbonate market may present a wide - range oscillatory pattern. The upward resistance mainly comes from the insufficient follow - up of the spot market and high inventory pressure, while the downward support stems from raw material - end disturbance risks and the demand expectation for the peak season in September. It is recommended to pay attention to policy changes at the mine end and the restocking rhythm of downstream battery cell enterprises [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Analysis of Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Changes - On August 21, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 82,760 yuan/ton, up 2.2% from the previous day, showing signs of a stable rebound. The basis weakened significantly to 540 yuan/ton, with the spot price struggling to follow the increase, indicating a weakening market expectation for the forward price [1]. - The open interest decreased slightly by 1.3% to 390,000 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 7.3% month - on - month. Market sentiment became more cautious, and some funds took profits at high levels and exited [1]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: The prices of spodumene/mica concentrate remained stable. The suspension of Ningde Times' Yichun mica mine due to the expiration of the mining license may cause regional supply disruptions. Currently, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 63.9%, but raw material suppliers were reluctant to sell due to cost - price inversion, which may suppress the enthusiasm for future lithium salt production [2]. - Demand side: The retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 9% year - on - year, but the current terminal demand was still in the off - season, and vehicle manufacturers were cautious in stocking. The price of ternary materials rose driven by nickel and cobalt costs, and combined with the fact that the lithium extraction coefficient of manufacturers was linked to the settlement price, it supported the rigid - demand procurement of lithium carbonate. The price of lithium iron phosphate battery cells decreased slightly by 0.2%, and the cost transmission was not fully realized, so the stocking intensity of power battery enterprises was limited [2]. - Inventory and warehouse receipts: The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly by 0.1% month - on - month to 142,300 tons, and the inventory reduction speed was still slow [2]. c. Market Summary - In the short term, lithium carbonate futures may enter a wide - range oscillatory pattern. The upward resistance mainly comes from the insufficient follow - up of the spot market and high inventory pressure, while the downward support comes from raw material - end disturbance risks and the demand expectation for the peak season in September [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On August 21, the main lithium carbonate contract was 82,760 yuan/ton, up 2.2% from the previous day; the basis was 540 yuan/ton, down 83.73% from the previous day; the open interest of the main contract was 390,069 lots, down 1.27%; the trading volume of the main contract was 777,827 lots, down 7.28%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,300 yuan/ton, down 1.19% [5]. - From August 15 to August 21, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 63.92%. The lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.11% to 142,256 tons [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Spot Market Quotations - On August 21, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 85,224 yuan/ton, down 528 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 83,500 - 86,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 85,200 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 82,300 - 83,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 82,900 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The significant correction of the lithium carbonate futures price greatly boosted the procurement and price - fixing enthusiasm of downstream buyers, and the trading volume increased significantly. In the short term, the spot price of lithium carbonate will still remain at a relatively high level [6]. b. Downstream Consumption Situation - From August 1 - 17, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 502,000 units, up 9% year - on - year and 12% from the same period last month, with a penetration rate of 58.0%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 6.958 million units, up 28% year - on - year. The wholesale volume of the national new energy passenger vehicle market was 474,000 units, up 18% year - on - year and 10% from the same period last month, with a penetration rate of 56.4%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 8.108 million units, up 34% year - on - year [6]. c. Industry News - On August 18, Lanxiao Technology won the bid for the adsorption system of the expansion and renovation project for the comprehensive utilization of old brine lithium extraction from the Lop Nur Salt Lake of SDIC Xinjiang Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., with a bid amount of 35.7712 million yuan. The implementation of this project will help the company provide full - life - cycle, one - stop technical optimization and upgrading services, improve its market share and technical control ability in the salt - lake lithium extraction industry, and have a positive impact on the development of its resources and new energy business [7][8]. - On August 15, Ningde Times' Jianxiashan mining area, one of the largest lithium mica mines in Yichun, suspended production due to the expiration of the mining license, which would directly affect the price of lithium carbonate. Yichun local mines mainly mine ceramic soil and tantalum - niobium ore, but the new mining law revision tends to determine the ore type based on actual economic activities. There are a total of eight mines in a similar situation, and local authorities require them to re - apply before September 30 this year [8]. - On August 12, the Lithium Industry Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative for the healthy development of the lithium industry, calling on the entire industrial chain to jointly resist vicious competition and promote the high - quality development of the lithium industry [9].