南华期货棉花棉纱周报：市场情绪反复，棉价仍存支撑-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the macro - sentiment was volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined with the market. Xinjiang's new cotton is entering the boll - splitting and boll - opening stage, and most cotton fields may spray defoliants from late August to mid - early September. The downstream is approaching the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, with the load of downstream yarn mills remaining stable and that of fabric mills slightly increasing, and finished products are being destocked, showing signs of the peak season, but the downstream market is generally cautious and current orders are still insufficient. Abroad, the US may further increase tariffs on Indian imports, and India has announced a suspension of about 11% import tariffs on cotton arriving at ports from August 19 to September 30. As of August 19, about 22% of the cotton - planting areas in the US are affected by drought, with the drought area in the central - southern cotton region expanding significantly. Brazil's new cotton picking progress was slow but has recently accelerated. In the short term, the rapid destocking of old cotton and the low - inventory situation still strongly support cotton prices. With the marginal improvement in downstream sales, the operation strategy is to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the continuous demand during the peak season and the opening price of new cotton purchases [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Market - Supply: As of August 14, the national new cotton sales rate was 97.9%, 5.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 8.2 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [1]. - Import: In July, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 150,000 tons from the same period last year; the yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, the same as the previous month and a decrease of 20,000 tons from the same period last year; the cotton fabric import volume was 3,981.43 tons, a 29.16% increase from the previous month and a 10.57% decrease from the same period last year [1]. - Demand: In July, the domestic retail sales of textile and clothing were 96.1 billion yuan, a 24.63% decrease from the previous month and a 1.80% increase from the same period last year; the export volume of textile and clothing was 26.766 billion US dollars, a 2.01% decrease from the previous month and a 0.06% decrease from the same period last year [1]. - Inventory: As of August 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 2.7444 million tons, a decrease of 343,800 tons from the end of July. Among them, the commercial inventory was 1.8202 million tons, a decrease of 369,600 tons from the end of July, and the industrial inventory was 924,200 tons, an increase of 25,800 tons from the end of July [1]. 3.2 International Market 3.2.1 US Market - Supply: As of August 17, the budding rate of cotton in the US was 97%, 1 percentage point behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point behind the average of the past five years; the boll - setting rate was 73%, 10 percentage points behind the same period last year and 7 percentage points behind the average of the past five years; the boll - opening rate was 13%, 5 percentage points behind the same period last year and 3 percentage points behind the average of the past five years; the overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 55%, 2 percentage points higher than the previous week and 13 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1]. - Demand: From August 8 to 14, the net signing volume of US 2025/2026 - season upland cotton was 23,904 tons, a significant 56% decrease from the previous week; the shipment volume of upland cotton was 27,964 tons, a 32% decrease from the previous week; the net signing volume of Pima cotton was 227 tons, and the shipment volume was 1,043 tons. There were no signings of 2026/2027 - season upland cotton and Pima cotton this week [1]. 3.2.2 Southeast Asian Market - Supply: As of August 15, the new - season cotton sown area in India reached 10.8 million hectares, a decrease of about 2.9% compared to the same period last year [1]. - Demand: In July, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.911 billion US dollars, an 8.7% increase from the previous month and a 5.3% increase from the same period last year; in June, Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a 28.87% decrease from the previous month and a 6.31% decrease from the same period last year; in July, India's clothing export volume was 1.340 billion US dollars, a 2.2% increase from the previous month and a 4.8% increase from the same period last year; in June, Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a 0.60% decrease from the previous month and a 7.59% increase from the same period last year [1]. 3.3 Futures Market - Cotton Futures: The closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 01 was 14,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan and a 0.64% decline; the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 05 was 13,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan and a 0.71% decline; the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 09 was 13,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan and a 0.54% decline [22][25]. - Spot: The price of CC Index 3128B was 15,243 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan and a 0.18% increase; the price of CC Index 2227B was 13,341 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan and a 0.04% increase; the price of CC Index 2129B was 15,528 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan and a 0.27% increase [25]. - Spreads: The CF1 - 5 spread was 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the CF5 - 9 spread was 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the CF9 - 1 spread was - 270 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan [25]. - Import Prices: The price of FC Index M was 13,541 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan and a 0.26% decline; the price of FCY Index C32s was 21,232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan and a 0.11% decline [25]. - Yarn: The closing price of yarn futures was 20,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan and a 0.62% decline; the spot price of yarn was 20,720 yuan/ton, with no change [25].