Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) Changjiang Securities·2025-08-22 14:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Viewpoints - The industry is transitioning from rapid growth to a stable phase, with medium to long-term capacity regulation expected to become the new norm in the pig farming sector, which may positively impact the industry. The company is entering a new stage of development [2]. - Future capital expenditures are expected to gradually decrease, with a significant slowdown in new domestic capacity. The focus will shift towards enhancing efficiency, deepening cost reductions, lowering debt, and improving free cash flow, leading to a healthier high-quality development phase for the company's domestic business. The overseas market presents new growth opportunities [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 76.46 billion yuan (YoY +34%), net profit of 10.79 billion yuan (YoY +953%), and attributable net profit of 10.53 billion yuan (YoY +1170%). In Q2 alone, revenue was 40.40 billion yuan (YoY +32%), with net profit of 6.17 billion yuan (YoY +77%) and attributable net profit of 6.04 billion yuan (YoY +88%) [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In July 2025, the company's total cost dropped to 11.8 yuan/kg, with an average complete cost of approximately 12.2 yuan/kg in Q2. The company marketed 46.91 million pigs in the first half of 2025 (YoY +45%), including 38.39 million market pigs (YoY +32%) and 8.29 million piglets (YoY +168%). The average profit per market pig was about 254 yuan per head in the first half, increasing to approximately 283 yuan per head in Q2 [11]. - Cash flow and debt levels have significantly improved, with a 12% year-on-year increase in net cash flow from operating activities in H1 2025. Capital expenditures decreased from 6 billion yuan in H1 2024 to 5.2 billion yuan in H1 2025. The debt-to-asset ratio fell from 59% in Q1 2025 to 56% in Q2 2025, with total liabilities decreasing by 12.8 billion yuan compared to Q1 2025 [11]. Cost Management and Shareholder Returns - The company aims for an average annual complete cost of 12 yuan/kg, with expectations to reduce it to 11 yuan/kg by year-end, primarily through improved production performance and reduced operating expenses. Future cost-cutting measures include breeding optimization, health management, and employee training [11]. - In H1 2025, the company distributed 5 billion yuan in dividends, with a payout ratio of 47.5%, exceeding the 40% target set for 2024. Including share buybacks, total shareholder returns reached 6.11 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 58% of the attributable net profit for H1 2025 [11].