巴比食品（605338）：内生外延并举驱动收入，盈利能力受益成本下降

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 835 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.31%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 132 million yuan, up 18.08% year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to maintain its profit forecast for 2025 while slightly adjusting the forecast for 2026. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 285 million, 327 million, and 365 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 3%, 14.8%, and 11.7% respectively [7] - The company is benefiting from a decrease in costs, with a gross margin of 28.23% in Q2 2025, an increase of 1.85 percentage points year-on-year [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are 1,882 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.6%. The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 285 million yuan, with a growth rate of 3% [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.19 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 [6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 10.7% in 2025, increasing to 11.9% by 2027 [6] Revenue Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on both organic growth and acquisitions to drive revenue. The franchise revenue in Q2 2025 was 348 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [7] - The number of franchise stores reached 5,685 by the end of the reporting period, with a net increase of 542 stores since the beginning of the year [7] - The company is actively enhancing single-store revenue through various strategies, including optimizing layouts and increasing delivery sales, which saw a nearly 40% year-on-year increase [7] Profitability Improvement - The company’s selling expense ratio decreased to 3.96% in the first half of 2025, down 0.73 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to more flexible expense management for franchise stores [7] - The net profit margin for the first half of 2025 improved to 15.84%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year, driven by lower costs [7]