HLGF(SH:600346) EBSCN·2025-08-23 12:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance has been under pressure due to falling oil prices, with a potential bottom reversal in the refining sector expected as "anti-involution" policies are promoted [1][7] - The company reported a revenue of 103.9 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.05 billion yuan, down 24% year-on-year [4][5] - The report highlights the gradual production of new capacities and the ongoing development of high-value-added new material industrial chains [6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 46.9 billion yuan, down 13.5% year-on-year and 17.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 999 million yuan, down 47% year-on-year and 51% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - Brent crude oil averaged 66.76 USD per barrel in Q2 2025, down 22% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company is expected to have net profits of 8.3 billion, 9.7 billion, and 10.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.18, 1.38, and 1.52 yuan [8][9] Industry Outlook - The "anti-involution" policies initiated in 2024 are expected to improve market competition and reduce vicious price competition in the refining industry, leading to a potential recovery in the sector's profitability [7] - The report emphasizes the shift in the petrochemical industry towards high-value-added transformations, indicating a new phase in policy direction [7] Valuation and Forecast - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2027 downwards, with expected net profits of 8.3 billion, 9.7 billion, and 10.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% reduction for 2025 [8] - The company is projected to maintain a high dividend policy, aiming to create a "growth + return" type of listed company [8]