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巴比食品(605338):门店内生外延同步推进,单店收入触底反弹

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 20% in stock price compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [7][22]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 835 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.31%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 132 million yuan, up 18.08% year-on-year, indicating a strong performance [2]. - The company is experiencing steady growth in its group meal business and is expanding its store network, with a net increase of 542 franchise stores in the first half of 2025 [3][4]. - The company's gross margin improved to 27.01% in the first half of 2025, up 0.84 percentage points from the previous year, showcasing effective cost control and operational efficiency [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue from franchise sales, direct sales, and group meals was 613 million yuan, 11 million yuan, and 199 million yuan respectively, with group meal sales showing a significant growth of 18.99% year-on-year [4]. - The company achieved a single-store revenue of 107,800 yuan in the first half of 2025, with a notable rebound in the second quarter, where it reached 61,200 yuan, marking a 2.7% year-on-year increase [6]. - The company forecasts net profits of 276 million yuan, 304 million yuan, and 335 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 19, 18, and 16 [7][8]. Regional Performance - The company saw revenue growth across various regions, with East China, South China, Central China, and North China generating revenues of 687 million yuan, 72 million yuan, 49 million yuan, and 25 million yuan respectively in the first half of 2025 [4]. - The East China region experienced rapid growth, primarily due to the consolidation of the "Qinglu" brand stores, which added 504 stores to the company's portfolio [4]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company has optimized its sales and research expenses, leading to a decrease in sales expense ratio to 3.96% and research expense ratio to 0.69% in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The net profit margin improved to 15.77%, up 1.17 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability [5].