Milkground(SH:600882) Orient Securities·2025-08-23 12:29Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 32.95 CNY, reflecting a calculated equity value of 169 billion CNY [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's industrial catering business is experiencing rapid growth, with significant potential for margin improvement in single product categories. The overall gross margin has decreased due to a higher proportion of lower-margin industrial catering products, but there is substantial room for improvement in individual product margins as domestic raw material substitution increases [1][10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 25.7 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, representing an 8.0% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.3 billion CNY, up 86.3% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue reached 13.3 billion CNY (+9.6%) and net profit was 0.5 billion CNY (+53.1%) [10]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.602 billion CNY, 6.485 billion CNY, and 7.482 billion CNY, respectively, with expected growth rates of 15.7%, 15.8%, and 15.4% [8]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 35.5%, down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the increased share of lower-margin industrial catering products [10]. Earnings Forecast - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.46 CNY, 0.63 CNY, and 0.83 CNY, respectively [2][8].