Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 19.02 over the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 0.01 billion and a net profit of -HKD 0.88 billion for the reporting period. The oral small molecule GLP-1 agonist ASC30 shows potential for BIC, and overseas licensing opportunities are promising. ASC30 demonstrated an average weight reduction of 6.5% relative to baseline in a U.S. Phase Ib trial [1][2]. - The company has multiple pipeline products advancing rapidly, including ASC30 subcutaneous injection and ASC47 THRb subcutaneous injection, with top-line data expected within the year. The revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are HKD 0.03 billion, HKD 0.7 billion, and HKD 1.4 billion, respectively, with net profits projected at -HKD 3.0 billion, -HKD 2.8 billion, and -HKD 2.9 billion [2][6]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at HKD 56.60 million, with a significant increase expected in subsequent years, reaching HKD 137.92 million by 2027. However, net profits are expected to remain negative throughout this period [6][10]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is projected to be negative in 2025 at -HKD 168.66 million, with a recovery expected in 2026 [9]. - The balance sheet shows total assets decreasing from HKD 2,491.01 million in 2023 to HKD 1,232.41 million by 2027, indicating a potential liquidity concern [8]. Market Performance - The stock has shown significant performance, with a 12-month absolute return of 1,733.3% and a relative return of 1,701.2% [5]. - The current stock price is HKD 14.85, which is below the target price, indicating potential upside for investors [4]. Pipeline Development - The company is advancing several clinical trials, including ASC30 and ASC47, with expected top-line data releases within the year, which could significantly impact future revenue streams [2][6]. - The DCF model suggests a strong growth trajectory for revenue, with projections indicating a rise to HKD 70.0 billion by 2034 [7]. Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratio for 2025 is -44.23, reflecting the company's current unprofitability but potential for future growth as products are commercialized [11]. - The projected net profit margin is expected to improve significantly, moving from -255.70% in 2024 to -207.79% in 2027, indicating a gradual recovery [11].
歌礼制药-B（01672）：口服小分子GLP-1激动剂展现BIC潜力，海外授权值得期待