Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][10] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with a sequential decline in cash receipts, but overall profitability remained stable. The introduction of new products, new models, and new marketing strategies is expected to drive growth in the second half of the year as the contribution from new products combined with a lower base is anticipated to improve growth rates [2][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 7,030 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 20.1%. However, revenue is expected to decline by 27.8% in 2025, followed by a recovery in subsequent years with growth rates of 4.5% and 5.1% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][11]. - Adjusted net profit for 2023 is estimated at 1,623 million RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 35.5% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit is expected to decline by 27.5% in 2025, with a gradual recovery in the following years [4][11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 25.11 in 2025, indicating a higher valuation compared to previous years [4][11]. Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 40%. The adjusted net profit was 610 million RMB, also down 40% year-on-year, aligning with prior announcements regarding performance [10]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 59.0%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points. The sales expense ratio was 22.2%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Brand Performance - Revenue from the brand "Zhenjiu" in the first half of 2025 was 1.49 billion RMB, down 45% year-on-year. The "Lidu" brand generated 610 million RMB, a decline of 9% year-on-year, while "Xiangjiao" and "Kaikouxiao" saw declines of 39% and 64% respectively [10]. - The high-end and next-high-end liquor segments experienced significant revenue declines of 47% and 42% respectively, attributed to weak demand and ongoing impacts from drinking policies [10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has been cautious in its shipping pace to alleviate channel inventory pressure amid significant industry downturns since the second half of 2024. New product launches and innovative business models are being implemented to enhance market presence and drive sales [10].
珍酒李渡（06979）：2025 年半年报点评：因时而变：新产品、新模式