TMD(SZ:000762) Huafu Securities·2025-08-23 13:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][16] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue of 134 million yuan, down 66% year-on-year, and a net loss of 15 million yuan, down 114% year-on-year. The decline was attributed to decreased product sales and prices [5][6] - The company is expected to see a gradual release of production capacity from the Zabuye Phase II project, which has already seen an investment of over 2.1 billion yuan and is currently at 95% completion. This project is anticipated to produce 156,000 tons of potassium chloride annually once fully operational [8][5] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is adjusted to 12 million yuan, 248 million yuan, and 380 million yuan respectively, reflecting a significant decrease in production expectations for lithium and chromium products [8][9] Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue from chromium products was 67.56 million yuan, down 42% year-on-year, and from lithium products was 64.52 million yuan, down 77% year-on-year. The gross profit margins for these products also saw significant declines [6][7] - The overall expense ratio for the first half of 2025 increased to 46.05%, up 29.49 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios rising significantly [7] - The company's total assets and liabilities are projected to show a gradual increase, with total revenue expected to reach 1.23 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a recovery trend after the downturn [10]