Semir(SZ:002563) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-23 15:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Semir Apparel (002563) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue recovery with a year-on-year growth of 3.3% in H1 2025, while the net profit decreased by 41.2% [7] - The mid-term cash dividend proposed is 0.15 yuan per share, with a total cash dividend amounting to 404 million yuan, resulting in a high payout ratio of 124% [7] - The company is expected to benefit from domestic fertility promotion policies, indicating potential for a new growth cycle [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 15,602 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.7% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 935 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a decrease of 17.8% year-on-year [6] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 44.1% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.9% [6] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 61.5 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.25 billion yuan [7] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 30.7 billion yuan, marking a 9% increase year-on-year, while the net profit for the same period was 1.11 billion yuan, down 46.3% [7] - The company’s inventory at the end of H1 2025 was 33.3 billion yuan, a 16.6% increase year-on-year, with inventory turnover days increasing to 187 days [7] Brand and Channel Performance - The children's clothing brand Balabala generated revenue of 43.1 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 6% increase year-on-year, while the leisure apparel segment saw a decline with revenue of 17.2 billion yuan, down 5% [7] - Online sales performance was stable with revenue of 26.9 billion yuan, while offline direct sales increased by 34.8% to 9.5 billion yuan [7]