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中矿资源(002738):2025年半年报点评:铜冶炼拖累业绩,期待铜矿镓锗项目投产

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [5][12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.27 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.9%, but a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, down 81.2% to 90 million yuan [1]. - The lithium business faced challenges due to falling prices, with a gross margin of 10.9% in H1 2025, a decrease of 24.7 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. - The cesium and rubidium segment showed strong performance, with H1 2025 revenue of 710 million yuan, up 50.4% year-on-year, and a gross profit of 510 million yuan, also up 50.2% [2]. - The copper smelting operations negatively impacted overall performance, with a loss of approximately 200 million yuan in H1 2025, but the company plans to shut down these operations to reduce losses in the second half of the year [2][3]. - The company is progressing on its copper and gallium-indium projects, with plans to start contributing profits gradually from 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2025 revenue reached 3.27 billion yuan, a 34.9% increase year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell to 90 million yuan, down 81.2% [1]. - The lithium segment saw sales of 18,000 tons, a 6.4% increase year-on-year, but the average price of lithium carbonate dropped by 32% to 70,000 yuan per ton [1][2]. - The cesium and rubidium segment achieved revenue of 710 million yuan in H1 2025, a 50.4% increase, with significant growth in both product lines [2]. Project Development - The company is on track with its copper and gallium-indium projects, with the copper project expected to start production in 2026 and the gallium-indium project in 2025 [3]. - The company plans to close its copper smelting lines to mitigate losses, which are expected to decrease significantly in the second half of 2025 [2][3]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 520 million yuan for 2025, with a significant increase expected in subsequent years, reaching 3.01 billion yuan by 2027 [4]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 56, 19, and 10, respectively, indicating a potential for growth [4].