长安汽车（000625）：25Q2毛利环比提升25H2新能源增量可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 72.69 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.29 billion yuan, down 19.1% year-on-year [1] - The establishment of a new group on July 29, 2025, aims to deepen resource integration and enhance operational efficiency, particularly in the electric vehicle sector [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the launch of new electric models in the second half of 2025, which should improve sales performance [2] Revenue and Profitability - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 38.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.8% [1] - The average selling price (ASP) for vehicles reached 98,000 yuan in Q2 2025, an increase of 23,000 yuan quarter-on-quarter [2] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 15.2%, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year and 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Cost and Expenses - Sales expenses increased due to promotional costs for new models and overseas brand launches, with the sales expense ratio rising to 7.0% in Q2 2025 [3] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 0.94 billion yuan, down 43.9% year-on-year and 30.6% quarter-on-quarter, influenced by rising costs and expenses [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 189.6 billion yuan, 209.5 billion yuan, and 233.5 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 8.06 billion yuan, 10.16 billion yuan, and 12.72 billion yuan [5] - The report anticipates earnings per share (EPS) of 0.81 yuan, 1.02 yuan, and 1.28 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]