Milkground(SH:600882) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-08-24 08:56Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.57 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 130 million yuan, up 86.3% year-on-year [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, with a net profit of 50.57 million yuan, up 53.1% year-on-year [1] - The company expects high earnings elasticity in Q3 due to a low base effect and the performance of new products [5] Revenue Summary - In H1 2025, the revenue from the B-end catering industry and C-end family dining grew rapidly, driving cheese business growth of 15% [2] - Revenue breakdown for H1 2025: cheese 2.14 billion yuan, trading products 230 million yuan, and liquid milk 190 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 14.8%, 3.7%, and 0.6% respectively [2] - The number of distributors decreased by 1,246 to a total of 6,551 as of H1 2025 [2] Profitability Summary - H1 2025 gross margin was 30.8%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, and net margin was 5.2%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - In Q2 2025, the gross margin was 30.2%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in business and product structure [3] - The company optimized its expense ratios, leading to a significant increase in net margin in Q2 2025 [3] New Products - The company launched a new cheese nut crisp product in collaboration with Sam's Club, expanding its C-end ready-to-eat nutrition product matrix [4] - The product features a unique recipe with New Zealand imported cheese and a ≥50% nut content, offering high calcium and protein with only about 33 kcal per piece [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts revenues of 5.51 billion yuan, 6.25 billion yuan, and 6.96 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.8%, 13.3%, and 11.4% [5] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 240 million yuan, 340 million yuan, and 450 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 106.9%, 44.4%, and 33.2% [5] - The target price is set at 31.5 yuan [5]