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绿城中国(03900):业绩基本筑底,经营边际突出

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, primarily due to uneven delivery schedules and substantial asset impairment losses [7][10]. - Despite the short-term pressure on performance, the company has shown notable improvements in operational margins, sales rankings, and financial stability, indicating a potential recovery in the future [7][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025H, the company achieved revenue of 53.368 billion (down 23.3%) and a net profit of 210 million (down 89.7%), largely impacted by uneven delivery schedules and a significant asset impairment loss of 1.933 billion [7][10]. - The gross margin was 13.4%, slightly up from 13.1% year-on-year, but still at a low level [10]. - The company recorded a total sales amount of 122.2 billion (including entrusted construction), with self-invested sales amounting to 80.3 billion (down 6%), outperforming the industry average decline of 11% [10]. Sales and Market Position - The company improved its sales ranking to fifth in the industry, with new sales value ranking third [10]. - The average self-invested sales price was 34,984 per square meter, maintaining a high level [10]. - The company acquired 35 new projects in the first half of the year, with a total equity land acquisition amount of approximately 36.2 billion [10]. Financial Health - The average financing cost decreased to 3.60%, down 40 basis points from the previous year, indicating improved financial conditions [10]. - The debt structure has been optimized, with short-term debt accounting for 16.3%, the lowest in history [10]. - The company maintains a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.7, indicating a strong financial position [10]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 1 billion, 1.9 billion, and 4.2 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of -36%, +88%, and +118% [10]. - The overall performance is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, but operational improvements and brand influence are anticipated to gradually manifest [10].