Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) Guoxin Securities·2025-08-24 12:27Global Market Overview - The global equity markets experienced more gains than losses in the past week, with US stocks initially declining before rising sharply on the day of the Jackson Hole meeting, resulting in a positive weekly close. The Dow Jones outperformed the Nasdaq and S&P 500 [3][9] - Valuation changes showed divergence, with overall percentiles remaining high. The Nasdaq's one-year PE percentile fell below 40%, while the three-year PE percentile dropped to around 50%. European indices maintained percentiles above 90%, with the DAX slightly lower than the UK and France [3][9] A-Share Market Performance - In the week from August 18 to August 22, A-shares saw widespread gains and rapid valuation expansion. The CSI 100 index rose by 4.21%, outperforming the CSI 2000 and CSI 2000 indices. Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, with all market caps showing over 4% increases [3][27] - The current PE of the CSI 2000 is approaching 60 times, reflecting a marginal change of 1.92x from the previous week, while the CSI 1000's PE surpassed 45 times, expanding by 1.89x [3][27] Industry and Sector Analysis - All primary industries in the Shenwan classification experienced gains, with the TMT sector rising over 5%. The telecommunications, electronics, and computer industries led the gains with increases of 10.84%, 8.95%, and 7.93%, respectively, and corresponding PE expansions of 4.34x, 5.63x, and 7.28x [3][27] - The TMT sector reached its highest valuation point in nearly five years, with over half of the industries hitting their highest levels in the past year. The PE percentiles for electronics and telecommunications are at their five-year peaks [3][27] Emerging Industries Performance - Emerging industries showed mixed performance, with the digital economy chain experiencing significant valuation increases. The optical module and semiconductor sectors led the gains, while new energy and biotechnology lagged behind. The PE expansion for cloud computing, semiconductors, AI, and integrated circuits exceeded 10x [3][27] Valuation Comparisons - As of August 22, 2025, the rolling one-year and three-year valuation percentiles for major A-share indices have peaked, with the five-year PE exceeding 80%. Despite higher growth style gains, the valuation percentiles for growth stocks remain relatively superior, with the national growth index's one-year PE percentile at only 62% [3][29] - The large-cap growth index is the only major index with a one-year PE percentile below 50%, indicating a potential investment opportunity [3][29]