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华利集团(300979):25H1业绩点评:新工厂爬坡顺利,新客户快速放量,静待利润率改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 12.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.36%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.42% [6] - The company is experiencing a short-term pressure on profits due to the ramp-up of new factories, but it is expected that profitability will gradually improve as production capacity is released [6] - The company is diversifying its customer base, which enhances its resilience against market uncertainties [6] - The forecast for revenue growth is 11% in 2025, 14% in 2026, and 13% in 2027, with net profit expected to be 3.5 billion yuan, 4.3 billion yuan, and 4.96 billion yuan respectively [6][4] Summary by Sections Basic Information - Total shares: 1,167 million - Market price: 54.26 yuan - Market capitalization: 63,321.42 million yuan [1] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecast for 2023A: 20.114 billion yuan, 2024A: 24.006 billion yuan, 2025E: 26.671 billion yuan, 2026E: 30.469 billion yuan, 2027E: 34.497 billion yuan - Net profit forecast for 2023A: 3.2 billion yuan, 2024A: 3.84 billion yuan, 2025E: 3.498 billion yuan, 2026E: 4.346 billion yuan, 2027E: 4.962 billion yuan - P/E ratios: 19.8 for 2023A, 16.5 for 2024A, 18.1 for 2025E, 14.6 for 2026E, 12.8 for 2027E [4][6] Performance Analysis - The company reported a gross margin of 21.85% for H1 2025, down 6.38 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 13.2%, down 3.17 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company is seeing significant growth in European customer revenue, particularly from high-potential clients like Adidas and On [6]