Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Huachuang Securities·2025-08-24 14:46Report Information - Report Title: "Deposit Certificate Weekly Report (0818 - 0824): Supply - Demand is Unfavorable, and Pricing Repair May be Difficult" [1] - Report Date: August 24, 2025 - Analyst: Zhou Guannan, Song Qi Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Considering the relatively active certificate of deposit supply, the constraint of the lower limit of funds, and the lack of unexpected support on the demand side, it may be difficult to repair the pricing. Given the relatively weak supply - demand structure and stable capital prices, it is expected that the certificate of deposit pricing will maintain a high - level volatile state. If the capital stratification pressure remains at a seasonal level, the pressure for a significant price increase of certificates of deposit may be controllable. The allocation value of 1 - year national and joint - stock certificates of deposit can be considered at the range of 1.65% to 1.7% [2] Summary by Directory Supply: Net Financing Declines, and Term Structure Shortens - This week (August 18 - 24), the issuance scale of certificates of deposit was 54.921 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 24.551 billion yuan (compared with - 13.246 billion yuan from August 11 - 17). The issuance proportion of state - owned banks decreased from 38% to 27%, while that of joint - stock banks increased from 21% to 25%. The issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased from 38% to 25%, and the weighted issuance term narrowed to 6.46 months (from 8.09 months). Next week (August 25 - 31), the maturity scale will decline to 75.108 billion yuan, a weekly decrease of 4.334 billion yuan [2][5] Demand: State - owned Banks and Overseas Institutions are the Main Secondary - market Allocators, and the Primary - market Subscription Rate Continues - In the secondary market, state - owned banks and overseas institutions are the main allocators, with weekly net purchases of 50.919 billion yuan and 36.713 billion yuan respectively. The weekly net purchase of insurance increased from 23.869 billion yuan to 27.908 billion yuan. The primary - market subscription rate (15DMA) of the whole market remained around 90% [2] Valuation: Certificates of Deposit are Priced Higher in the Primary Market, and Secondary - market Yields Rise - In the primary market, the issuance price of 1 - year national and joint - stock certificates of deposit increased to 1.68%. The 1 - month variety increased by 6bp, the 3 - month by 3bp, the 6 - month and 9 - month by 2bp, and the 1 - year by 4bp compared with last week. The 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks widened by 1bp, at the 24% historical quantile. The 1 - year credit spreads between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks, and rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed. In the secondary market, the yields of AAA - rated certificates of deposit all increased. The 1 - month variety increased by 4bp, the 3 - month and 1 - year by 3bp, and the 6 - month and 9 - month by 2bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated certificates of deposit remained at the 27% historical quantile [2][22][30] Comparison: The Supply - Demand Structure is Unfavorable, and Pricing Repair May be Difficult - The spread between certificates of deposit and funds continued to widen. The spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield and DR007:15DMA widened from 16.48BP to 19.19BP; the spread with R007:15DMA widened from 13.25BP to 17.48BP; the spread with the 1 - year treasury bond yield widened from 27.35BP to 29.43BP, and the quantile increased from 10% to 14%. The spread between certificates of deposit and China Development Bank bonds narrowed from 11.42BP to 9.95BP, and the quantile dropped to around 3%. The spread between AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes and certificates of deposit widened from 4.94BP to 7.30BP, and the quantile increased to 31% [2][35]