高盛：寒武纪-目标价上调 1835

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Cambricon with a target price (TP) raised to Rmb1,835, reflecting a 47.6% upside from the current price of Rmb1,243.20 [1][3][36] Core Insights - The report highlights the positive outlook for Cambricon driven by increased capital expenditure (capex) from Chinese cloud service providers, diversification of chipset platforms, and significant R&D investments [2][28][36] - Cambricon's AI chips shipments are expected to grow significantly, with projections of 2.1 million units by 2030, representing a 72% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2025 to 2030 [28][33] - The Chinese AI chips market is projected to grow from US$19 billion in 2024 to US$26 billion in 2025, with Cambricon expected to capture a market share of 3% in 2025 and 11% by 2028 [28][36] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for Cambricon have been revised upwards, with expected revenues of Rmb6,468.3 million in 2025E and Rmb29,377.1 million by 2027E, reflecting a significant increase from previous estimates [5][29] - The report anticipates a net income of Rmb1,506 million in 2025E, increasing to Rmb17,598 million by 2030E, indicating a strong growth trajectory [29][30] Market Trends - The report notes a 119% year-over-year increase in Tencent's capex for Q2 2025, alongside a 23% increase from GS, indicating a robust investment environment in the Chinese cloud sector [2][28] - The diversification of chipset platforms is emphasized, particularly with the launch of DeepSeek V3.1, which aims to mitigate supply risks amid tariff uncertainties [2][28] R&D and Innovation - Cambricon plans to invest Rmb4,500 million (approximately US$628 million) in AI chips and software over the next three years, demonstrating a strong commitment to R&D [2][28] - The report highlights that Cambricon has passed compatibility tests for DeepSeek, reinforcing its strong R&D capabilities [2][28]