渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.08.25）-20250825

Macro and Strategy Research - The report highlights a temporary easing of geopolitical tensions, with the US retail sales showing strong growth in July, supported by online and offline promotions [4][5] - The report notes a cautious outlook for future retail sales due to weakening consumer confidence and the gradual transmission of tariff impacts to downstream sectors [4] - In Europe, an agreement on trade framework between the EU and the US has been reached, with the EU agreeing to eliminate tariffs on US industrial goods [5] Fixed Income Research - The bond market has continued to weaken, influenced by tightening liquidity during the tax period and a strong performance in the equity market, which has led to a higher risk appetite [10] - The report indicates that the central bank's monetary policy will focus on structural measures rather than broad-based policies, with an emphasis on preventing fund circularity [11] - The issuance of government bonds has increased, with a total of 131 bonds issued during the reporting period, amounting to a net financing of 447.3 billion [9] Company Research: Semir Apparel - Semir Apparel reported a revenue of 6.149 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.26%, but a net profit decline of 41.17% to 325 million [15] - The company experienced a significant rise in expense ratios, with a sales expense ratio increase of 5.69 percentage points, impacting net profit margins [16] - The direct sales channel showed strong performance with a revenue increase of 34.78%, while overseas business also grew by 79.19% [18][19] Industry Research: Pharmaceutical and Biotech - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies with better-than-expected earnings as the pharmaceutical and biotech sectors are experiencing a wave of earnings disclosures [12] - Key developments include the approval of new treatments and the release of half-year reports from major companies, indicating a positive trend in the sector [13][14] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the industry, focusing on innovative drugs and medical devices benefiting from policy support [14]