SWSC(SH:600369) Southwest Securities·2025-08-25 03:44Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall performance of bond ETFs is under pressure from rising interest rates, with convertible bond ETFs showing significant superiority. Last week, the share of treasury bond and convertible bond ETFs increased sharply, while the share of credit bond ETFs declined. The net value of bond ETFs was suppressed by the rising long - term interest rates, and convertible bond ETFs had the highest cumulative net inflow this week and this month [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Various Bond ETF Share Trends - Last week, the shares of treasury bond and convertible bond ETFs surged, while the shares of credit bond ETFs turned down. As of August 22, 2025, compared with August 15, 2025, the shares of treasury bond, policy - financial bond, local bond, credit bond, and convertible bond ETFs changed by 61.29 million shares, - 23.71 million shares, no change, - 24.81 million shares, and 520.30 million shares respectively, with a total change of 533.07 million shares for bond - type ETFs. Compared with the end of last month, the changes were 88.02 million shares, - 37.90 million shares, - 0.40 million shares, 169.83 million shares, and 1010.50 million shares respectively, with a total change of 1230.05 million shares for bond - type ETFs [2][5]. 1.2 Main Bond ETF Share and Net Value Trends - The shares of main bond ETFs were overall differentiated, with convertible bond and 30 - year treasury bond ETFs significantly increased. As of August 22, 2025, compared with August 15, 2025, the shares of selected bond ETFs changed by 28.83 million shares, - 23.59 million shares, no change, 0.30 million shares, and 384.90 million shares respectively. - The rising long - term interest rates suppressed the net value of bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs performed significantly better. As of August 22, 2025, compared with August 15, 2025, the net values of selected bond ETFs changed by - 0.76%, - 0.20%, - 0.16%, - 0.13%, and 2.73% respectively [2][6][8]. 1.3 Credit Bond ETF Share and Net Value Trends - The decline in the share of credit bond ETFs widened compared with the previous week. As of August 22, 2025, among the 8 existing credit bond ETFs, the shares of some decreased, such as - 6.00 million shares, - 2.00 million shares, - 0.01 million shares. - The net value of credit bond ETFs continued to decline. As of August 22, 2025, compared with August 15, 2025, the net values of 8 credit bond ETFs changed between - 0.22% and - 0.29% [2][11][14]. 1.4 Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Share and Net Value Trends - The shares of science and technology innovation bond ETFs showed differentiation, with Penghua and China Merchants leading the increase. As of August 22, 2025, compared with August 15, 2025, the shares of 10 science and technology innovation bond ETFs had different changes, such as 23.01 million shares, 5.60 million shares, 26.91 million shares increase for some, and - 5.77 million shares, - 1.01 million shares, - 2.53 million shares decrease for others. - The net value of science and technology innovation bond ETFs continued to correct. As of August 22, 2025, compared with August 15, 2025, the net values of 10 science and technology innovation bond ETFs changed between - 0.16% and - 0.28%. - The PCF list expansion accelerated, and individual bond performances were differentiated. The 25 Haikang K1 was repeatedly included in the PCF list last week. The top three individual bonds in terms of excess return were Shanjiao YK01, 24 Qingxin K2, and Diantou KY07, while Jingzi K09, 25 Bingqi K2, and 25 Diankong K2 had the most negative excess returns [2][18][22]. 1.5 Net Inflow of Some Bond ETFs - Convertible bond ETFs had the highest cumulative net inflow this week and this month. Weekly, the top three bond ETFs in terms of cumulative net inflow were convertible bond ETFs (523.77 million yuan), Shanghai - Stock - Exchange convertible bond ETFs (172.28 million yuan), and 30 - year treasury bond ETFs (36.36 million yuan). Monthly, the top three were convertible bond ETFs (1095.85 million yuan), Shanghai - Stock - Exchange convertible bond ETFs (261.10 million yuan), and urban investment bond ETFs (197.96 million yuan). - In terms of cumulative trading days, the top three bond ETFs with the highest cumulative net inflow in the past 10 trading days were convertible bond ETFs (845.33 million yuan), Shanghai - Stock - Exchange convertible bond ETFs (179.41 million yuan), and 30 - year treasury bond ETFs (67.26 million yuan); in the past 20 trading days, they were convertible bond ETFs (1383.25 million yuan), urban investment bond ETFs (242.34 million yuan), and Shanghai - Stock - Exchange convertible bond ETFs (237.56 million yuan) [2][24][25].