TONGWEI CO.,LTD(SH:600438) Minsheng Securities·2025-08-25 09:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a phase of performance pressure, with a significant net loss reported in the first half of 2025, but it maintains a leading position in the polysilicon market [1][4]. - The company achieved a global market share of approximately 30% in polysilicon sales, reinforcing its industry leadership while continuously improving product quality and reducing costs [2]. - The company remains the global leader in battery shipments, with a total of 49.89 GW sold in the first half of 2025, and has seen substantial growth in overseas module sales [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 40.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.51%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 4.955 billion yuan, which is an increase in loss compared to the previous year [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw operating revenue of 24.575 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.44% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 54.24%, but continued to report a net loss [1]. Market Position - The company sold 161,300 tons of polysilicon in the first half of 2025, maintaining its position as the industry leader with a global market share of about 30% [2]. - The company has achieved over 90% shipment of N-type polysilicon, with significant reductions in silicon consumption and metal content, leading the industry in product quality [2]. Product Development and Sales - The company sold 49.89 GW of batteries in the first half of 2025, continuing to hold the global sales record and surpassing 300 GW in cumulative shipments [3]. - In the first half of 2025, module sales reached 24.52 GW, with domestic distributed sales leading the market and overseas sales growing significantly [3]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 90.833 billion yuan, 107.477 billion yuan, and 120.188 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of -1.3%, 18.3%, and 11.8% [4][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -5.776 billion yuan, 3.077 billion yuan, and 6.052 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 17.9%, 153.3%, and 96.7% respectively [4][5].