Semir(SZ:002563) Changjiang Securities·2025-08-25 11:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to benefit from the sentiment boost of childbirth subsidy policies, which may enhance terminal retail performance and improve earnings. The ongoing new retail reforms and the company's strategy of opening stores against the trend are anticipated to provide additional revenue and earnings flexibility [2][10]. - The company's projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 940 million, 1.01 billion, and 1.13 billion yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 16, 15, and 13 times [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 330 million yuan, a decrease of 41.2% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 300 million yuan, down 45.2% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue was 3.07 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year, while net profit was 110 million yuan, down 46.3% year-on-year [5][10]. - The company declared a mid-year dividend of 404 million yuan, with a payout of 0.15 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 124% [5][10]. Sales and Profitability - The company's sales expenses and asset impairment losses have negatively impacted profits, although the inventory structure remains healthy. The gross profit margins for the main business segments of leisure and children's clothing were 4.65 percentage points and -1.34 percentage points year-on-year, respectively. Overall gross margins showed slight improvement [10]. - The sales expense ratio increased by 5.2 percentage points in Q2, primarily due to increased offline store openings and online advertising expenses. The financial expense ratio rose mainly due to decreased interest income from time deposits [10]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on solidifying its foundation through comprehensive strategies, discount control, and inventory reduction, which have shown effectiveness. The anticipated benefits from childbirth subsidy policies and the gradual success of new retail reforms are expected to enhance performance [2][10]. - The company plans to continue its strategy of opening stores, which is expected to contribute positively to revenue and earnings growth in the future [2][10].