Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-25 11:47Report Title - Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily Report - EG's explicit inventory continues to decline, and the price fluctuates strongly [1] Core View - Ethylene glycol's supply and demand have both increased recently, but it is mainly within expectations, and there is no obvious driving force in terms of fundamentals. The short - term sentiment of the chemical industry is expected to remain strong. Although the ethylene glycol market is in a cumulative inventory trend, the inventory increase expectation has been well - traded, and it is difficult to compress the valuation. With the combination of low inventory, neutral valuation, and inelastic supply, ethylene glycol is expected to maintain an upward - biased trend. Operationally, it is advisable to go long on pullbacks within the range. In the medium - to - long - term, the performance of the downstream polyester peak season needs to be observed, and long positions can be hedged by selling near - month out - of - the - money call options [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Other Key Points Polyester Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ethylene Glycol | 4300 - 4700 | 9.09% | 1.4% | | PX | 6500 - 7400 | 11.78% | 17.7% | | PTA | 4400 - 5300 | 9.30% | 4.6% | | Bottle Chip | 5800 - 6500 | 7.92% | 0.9% | [2] Polyester Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management | High finished - product inventory, worried about ethylene glycol price decline | Long | Short ethylene glycol futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs; buy put options to prevent sharp price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs | EG2601, EG2510P4400, EG2510C4600 | Sell, Buy, Sell | 25%, 50% | 4550 - 4700, 10 - 20, 30 - 70 | | Procurement Management | Low regular procurement inventory, want to purchase according to orders | Short | Buy ethylene glycol futures to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if the price drops | EG2601, EG2510P4400 | Buy, Sell | 50%, 75% | 4350 - 4450, 30 - 50 | [2] 利多解读 1. South Korea's finance minister announced that South Korean petrochemical companies will agree to cut up to 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity per year, which may impact ethylene glycol's raw material supply and ethylene - based production costs [4] 2. The planned arrival this week is 9.851 million tons, relatively low, and the port inventory is expected to decrease by about 30,000 tons next Monday, which will further tighten spot liquidity [6] 3. The loom load has continued to increase slightly recently. As the terminal autumn and winter orders start in September and foreign trade orders have recovered, the demand and downstream sentiment have improved marginally, and the loads of filament and staple fiber are expected to continue to increase [6] 利空解读 - The supply side of oil and coal has both increased, and the total load has risen to 73.16% (+6.77%). Among them, the ethylene - based production load has increased, and the coal - based production load has risen to 81.25% (+0.78%). Next week, some plants have maintenance and restart plans, and the total load is expected to continue to increase [7] Price and Spread Data - The report provides price data for various products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., including daily and weekly changes, as well as spread data between different contracts and processing fee data [10][11]