Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-25 11:55Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 25, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Copper Price and Volatility - Latest Price: 78,690 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility: 11.64%, with a historical percentile of 22.6% [2] Group 3: Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline (long spot exposure): - Strategy 1: Short the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with a hedging ratio of 75% and a suggested entry range around 82,000 yuan/ton [2] - Strategy 2: Sell call options (CU2511C82000), with a hedging ratio of 25% when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase (short spot exposure): - Strategy: Long the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with a hedging ratio of 75% and a suggested entry range around 77,000 yuan/ton [2] Group 4: Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are still in the process of consolidating the bottom. Macroscopically, the Fed meeting minutes had little impact on copper prices, but Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting pushed down the US dollar index and boosted the valuation of non - ferrous metals, leading to a significant rise in copper prices on Friday night. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the tender TC of many mining enterprises was lower than expected this week, and the export of copper ore from Indonesia met expectations. On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of copper rod enterprises increased by 1.2% month - on - month, and the finished - product inventory decreased slightly to 66,100 tons. Terminal demand remained stable, and the willingness to actively replenish inventory was not strong when the price did not clearly fall to 78,000 yuan/ton. In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate around 79,000 yuan/ton, with some pressure above. According to the current downstream and terminal situation, prices above 79,000 yuan/ton are prone to negative feedback, and slight macro - positive factors are difficult to keep the price above this level. Copper prices are also difficult to fall significantly to around 78,000 yuan/ton, as approaching this price will stimulate downstream inventory replenishment. Investors need to pay attention to the US core PCE price in July and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August [3] Group 5: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The US and other countries reached an agreement on tariff policies [4] - Increased expectations of interest rate cuts led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals [4] - The lower support level has been raised [4] Bearish Factors - The adjustment of the US copper tariff policy led to an extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX [5] Uncertain Factors - Repeated tariff policies [7] - Global demand decreased due to tariff policies [7] Group 6: Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 78,690 | 0 | 0% | [6] | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 78,650 | 140 | 0.18% | [8] | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 78,610 | 0 | 0% | [8] | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,809 | 74.5 | 0.77% | [8] | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.2 | 0.01 | 0.12% | [8] Group 7: Copper Spot Market Data | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 78,830 | 30 | 0.04% | [13] | Shanghai Wumaotong | yuan/ton | 78,825 | 80 | 0.1% | [13] | Guangdong Nanchu | yuan/ton | 78,750 | 70 | 0.09% | [13] | Yangtze Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 78,950 | 80 | 0.1% | [13] | Shanghai Non - ferrous Spot Premium | yuan/ton | 150 | - 10 | - 6.25% | [13] | Shanghai Wumaotong Spot Premium | yuan/ton | 135 | 20 | 17.39% | [13] | Guangdong Nanchu Spot Premium | yuan/ton | 165 | 35 | 26.92% | [13] | Yangtze Non - ferrous Spot Premium | yuan/ton | 160 | 5 | 3.23% | [13] Group 8: Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Tax - included Scrap - to - Refined Spread | yuan/ton | 1,084.04 | 50 | 4.84% | [15] | Reasonable Tax - included Scrap - to - Refined Spread | yuan/ton | 1,488.5 | 0.5 | 0.03% | [15] | Tax - included Price Advantage | yuan/ton | - 404.46 | 49.5 | - 10.9% | [17] | Current Tax - free Scrap - to - Refined Spread | yuan/ton | 5,750 | 50 | 0.88% | [17] | Reasonable Tax - free Scrap - to - Refined Spread | yuan/ton | 6,172.19 | 3.47 | 0.06% | [17] | Tax - free Price Advantage | yuan/ton | - 422.19 | 46.53 | - 9.93% | [17] Group 9: Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Receipt | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 24,148 | - 1,009 | - 4.01% | [19] | Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 6,125 | 0 | 0% | [19] | Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts in Shanghai | tons | 2,405 | 0 | 0% | [19] | Total Bonded Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | [19] | Total Tax - paid Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 24,148 | - 1,009 | - 4.01% | [19] LME Copper Inventory | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME Copper Inventory | tons | 155,975 | - 375 | - 0.24% | [21] | LME Copper Inventory in Europe | tons | 24,550 | - 150 | - 0.61% | [21] | LME Copper Inventory in Asia | tons | 131,425 | - 225 | - 0.17% | [21] | LME Copper Inventory in North America | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | [21] | Total LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 143,450 | - 1,550 | - 1.07% | [21] | Total LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 12,525 | 1,175 | 10.35% | [21] COMEX Copper Inventory | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX Copper Inventory | tons | 271,482 | 2,416 | 0.9% | [22] | Total COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 138,871 | 13,745 | 1.19% | [22] | Total COMEX Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 132,611 | - 1,842 | - 1.37% | [22] Group 10: Copper Import Profit and Processing | Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit and Loss | yuan/ton | 153.53 | - 81.28 | - 34.62% | [23] | Copper Concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 41.3 | - 3.1 | 8.12% | [23]