巴比食品（605338）：25Q2单店收入转正，团餐亮眼，并购整合加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [6][19]. Core Views - The company has shown positive growth in single-store revenue and impressive performance in group meals, with a notable increase in net profit and revenue in Q2 2025 [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 18.94 billion, 21.22 billion, and 23.49 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 12%, and 11% [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the company reported a revenue of 1,630 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 214 million yuan, down 4% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 465 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.50%, and a net profit of 94 million yuan, up 31.42% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross margin improved to 28.23% in Q2 2025, benefiting from lower raw material costs, while the net profit margin increased to 20.31% [3]. Business Expansion and Strategy - The company plans to accelerate store expansion and integration, having opened 456 new stores in H1 2025, aligning with its goal of opening 1,000 stores for the year [4]. - A strategic investment partnership with a well-known dumpling chain in Zhejiang is expected to enhance supply chain capabilities and market penetration in East China [4]. - The group meal business is anticipated to continue its high growth trajectory, with customized ingredient sales increasing by approximately 90% year-on-year in H1 [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a P/E ratio of 16.5, 14.8, and 13.5 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [5].