债券研究专题报告：债券成为弱势资产了吗？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is far from entering a bear market, and the current adjustment is mainly a risk release from previous over - gains. The low - interest environment is an important driver for the A - share market, and the probability of domestic monetary policy turning tight is limited as the policy is still promoting inflation. [2] - The domestic bond curve structure has broken many historical rules since 2024 due to the change in the economic model. The uncertainty of monetary policy restricts the space for spread compression, and the emotional impact of the equity market's rise on the bond market has been magnified. [2] - The central bank's target for the DR001 central level may not have been adjusted. The impact of equity market fluctuations on the capital side is short - term. The recent tightening of funds may be due to the central bank's tolerance of increased capital fluctuations after the relatively low DR001 average in the first half of August. [2][34] - The so - called "deposit relocation" is a false proposition. It is essentially a result of the increase in residents' risk appetite. The bond market's right - side opportunity still needs to wait, and if the equity market continues to rise, the bond market may face more disturbances. [35][40][45] - The bond market's space may be opened when the economy continues to weaken and forces the policy to turn more accommodative. If economic data continues to deteriorate for a quarter and credit demand does not improve, the probability of a policy rate cut or reserve requirement ratio cut cannot be excluded, which may improve the bond market's odds. [3][60] - Although the recent rise in the equity market has brought disturbances, it does not constitute a sufficient condition for the bond market to turn bearish. The upside space for interest rates is limited, and large - scale bond allocation should wait for the right - side signal. [62] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 The Risks in the Bond Market Are Mainly from Previous Over - gains - Low - interest environments drive the equity market. Overseas experience shows that the long - term low - interest environment lasted until after the pandemic, and domestic policy is still promoting inflation, so the probability of monetary policy tightening is low. Domestic bond bear markets have always been accompanied by monetary tightening, so the current bond market is not in a bear market, and the risks are from previous over - gains. [9] - Since 2024, the 10Y - 1Y Treasury bond spread and the 1Y certificate of deposit - overnight interest rate spread have been significantly compressed, which reflects the change in the economic model. However, there is no historical experience on how much the spread can be compressed. In China, the central bank's unclear guidance on future policy rates restricts the spread compression space. Without new factors such as interest rate cut expectations or central bank bond purchases, the spread compression may have reached its limit, and the rise of the equity market magnifies the disturbance to the bond market. [15][20][24] 3.2 The Central Bank's Target for the DR001 Central Level May Not Have Been Adjusted, and the Impact of Equity Market Fluctuations on the Capital Side Is Short - term - The Q2 monetary policy report's mention of "preventing capital idling" and the significant tightening of funds during the tax - payment period in August may not be fully explained by tax - payment outflows. The central bank may tolerate increased capital fluctuations in the second half of August due to the relatively low DR001 average in the first half. [25][34] - North - exchange new - share subscription freezing funds mainly affect the exchange - based capital price directly, and the impact on the inter - bank market is indirect and short - term. If the capital market fluctuations exceed the central bank's acceptable range, the central bank will take measures to hedge. [28][30][34] 3.3 Deposit Relocation Is a False Proposition, and the Bond Market Waits for the Right - side Signal under the Change in Risk Appetite - Stocks and bonds have different risk - return characteristics and investor groups. The rise of the equity market may not necessarily lead to a reversal in the bond market direction. The so - called "deposit relocation" is actually a result of the increase in residents' risk appetite. [35][40] - Referring to the 2015 experience, the end of the A - share market's upward trend may require the large - scale entry of leveraged funds and subsequent policy restrictions. Currently, the A - share market has not reached the bubble stage, but the increasing volatility indicates an increased risk of a phased adjustment. [42] - Although there is no widespread redemption in the bond market, if the equity market continues to rise, the bond market may face more disturbances. The bond market's stabilization may require an increase in low - risk preference allocation forces, but currently, the allocation forces have not been able to stabilize interest rates, and the right - side opportunity still needs to wait. [45] 3.4 The Bond Market's Space May Be Opened When the Economy Continues to Weaken and Forces the Policy to Turn More Accommodative - The July economic data shows that the domestic economy has faced pressure in Q3. Consumption, investment, and exports have all shown signs of decline, and the impact of anti - involution policies on the demand side is significant. Although the government has proposed some policies, their scale is limited, and the effect on the economy needs further observation. [47][49][53] - In July, financial data was weak, with negative growth in new credit. Although the central bank has shown some support for the real economy through interest rate adjustments, considering last year's interest rate decline mainly in Q3, the year - on - year decline in lending rates may narrow significantly after September. If economic data continues to deteriorate for a quarter and credit demand does not improve, the probability of a policy rate cut or reserve requirement ratio cut cannot be excluded, which may improve the bond market's odds. [57][60] 3.5 The Upside Space for Interest Rates Is Limited, and Large - Scale Bond Allocation Should Wait for the Right - side Signal - The recent rise in the equity market does not constitute a sufficient condition for the bond market to turn bearish. The short - term weakness of bonds is due to previous over - declines, low interest rates, and reduced probability of short - term central bank easing. The upside space for interest rates is limited, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield's upside is generally within 20BP. Large - scale bond allocation should wait for the right - side signal, and current trading should be fast - in - and - fast - out with timely profit - taking. [62]